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Automotive Transmission Market Forecast to 2018


Transmission system is one among the essential and vital component of any automobile. These systems have evolved from conventional manual to advanced and sophisticated automatic ones since the production of first commercial car over a century ago. Different kinds of transmission systems available in the market today include manual, semi-automatic, continuously variable (CVT), dual clutch (DCT), automated manual, and automatic. As of 2012, manual transmissions dominate the market with share of 57% followed by automatic (29%), CVT (9%), and DCT (4%) by volume. CVT and DCT represent high growth and low volume market as of 2012.

Market revenue of DCT and CVT together is expected to grow from $13.8 billion in 2013 to $22.7 billion in 2018 at an estimated CAGR of 10.4% for the same period. The revenue from DCT is expected to grow at higher CAGR of 15.5% during the forecast period due to its suitability in high performance cars and improved driving experience than the conventional transmission systems.

Different consumer preferences for automotive across various geographies regarding power output, cost, fuel economy, and driving experience are responsible for diverse market dynamics for both the technologies. On comparing technical aspects of both the technologies, DCT rates ahead of CVT in terms of vehicle performance and cost and requires low maintenance whereas CVT leads in terms of fuel efficiency and both the transmission systems rate same on carbon emissions.

Dual clutch Automotive Transmission Market has recently gained traction due to its salient features like enhanced driving experience, preferability in performance vehicles, and lowered carbon emissions. The technology is propounded by Volkswagen and Fiat group in their vehicles. Major companies active in this area are GETRAG, ZF, and Volkswagen. More companies are expected to enter into this market by 2018 through joint ventures and partnerships and the Asian region is likely to emerge as a new hub in this segment. With the anticipated increase in its installation rates and location of new production facilities, its prices are expected to decline in the near future which will further help in its popularity among automakers.

Dual clutch transmissions have two types of lubrication systems known as wet type and dry time. These systems are suited for different applications or types of automobiles. The wet clutch technology is being widely used in the DCT market for the higher segments of automobiles where performance is the main criteria. But the installation of dry DCT is on a rise in the lower segments of automobiles too, due to its cost effectiveness, low maintenance, and improved performance of the automotive. Globally dry type DCT is expected to grow at higher CAGR of 17.8% by revenue during the forecast period.

As of 2013, Europe leads the DCT market share by revenue followed by Asia-Pacific, and North America; with its share expected to reach 59.5% by 2018.

Continuously variable transmission systems are popular in the Asian region. High volumes of this type of transmission systems come mainly from the Japanese region. The major players in this segment are JATCO and Aisin. The automobile producer Nissan has ambitious plans regarding development of this technology. This technology is mainly adopted in the regions such as Asia and North America while it is least preferred in Europe. Its volume in Europe is expected to decline during the forecast period due to low consumer preference.
As of 2013, Asia-Pacific leads the CVT market share by revenue followed by North America, and Europe; with its share expected to reach 68.5% by 2018.

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