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Opportunity Analysis of H1N1 (swine flu) Vaccination Market

By: marketsandmarkets.com
Publishing Date: November 2009
Report Code: PH 1115

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The H1N1 Influenza A (2009) pandemic has affected more than 0.4 million people in 180 countries across the globe. The alphabets H and N designate the proteins Hemagglutinin and Neuraminidase present on the surface area of the virus. The flu first began in Mexico in March 2009, then affected the U.S., after which it spread across the globe. The H1N1/09 virus has genetic elements originating from avian, swine, and human sources, making it far more fatal than the 1918 H1N1 (Spanish Flu) outbreak.

Curative drugs such as Tamiflu were introduced in the initial phase of the H1N1 pandemic. The latter phase would require drugs facilitating prevention rather than the cure. This market research report forecasts the H1N1 vaccine market for disease prevention in the unaffected population. The initial lot of vaccines will be egg-based and cell-based and first administered to priority groups such as pregnant women, chronic disease patients, and children above 6 months of age.

The global H1N1 influenza vaccine market is expected to be $676 million in 2009. The market is expected to show a high CAGR of 222.4% from 2009 to 2011; but as most of the global population is expected to be immunized by the end of 2011, a more moderate growth is expected in the future. The overall H1N1 vaccines market is classified into the intramuscular and intranasal vaccines submarkets, of which the former holds the major share.

Governmental involvement and the increased awareness about the pandemic is driving the growth of the H1N1 vaccines market; thus encouraging market players to gain a better understanding of the market dynamics, technological innovations, product pricing, marketing, and regulatory framework. The first movers are GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Novartis, Commonwealth Serum Laboratories (CSL), Medimmune, Baxter, Sinovac, and Sanofi Pastuer. These companies have received approvals from various governments, including those of the U.S., the U.K., France, China, Denmark, and Australia. The U.S.-based Medimmune is currently the only manufacturer of the intranasal vaccine.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market overview
Global H1N1 2009 influenza vaccine market, by 
products
Global H1N1 2009 influenza vaccine market, by 
geography
Competitive scenario

1. INTRODUCTION
   1.1 Key take-aways
   1.2 Report description
   1.3 Scope of the report
   1.4 Stakeholders

2. SUMMARY
   2.1 Research methodology

3. MARKET OVERVIEW
   3.1. 1918 Spanish influenza (H1N1) pandemic
   3.2. 1957 – Asian flu (H2N2)
   3.3. 1968 – Hongkong flu
   3.4. 2009 H1N1 influenza
        3.4.1. H1N1 pandemic cycle

4. MARKET DYNAMICS
   4.1. Drivers & restraints
        4.1.1. Cost of H1N1 Vaccine
        4.1.2. Vaccine awareness
        4.1.3. Side-effects of vaccine
        4.1.4. Availability of substitute treatment
   4.2. Market forces analysis
        4.2.1. Supply-side drivers
        4.2.2. Demand-side drivers
        4.2.3. Restraints & opportunities
   4.3. Pricing of H1N1 vaccine
   4.4. Consumer insights

5. GLOBAL H1N1 2009 INFLUENZA VACCINE MARKET
   5.1. Market overview
        5.1.1. Priority groups for the H1N1 vaccine
   5.2. Drivers & restraints
        5.2.1. Public-private partnerships for supply of H1N1 vaccine
        5.2.2. Government subsidies for vaccine manufacture
        5.2.3. Revenue-increasing source
        5.2.4. High costs & lengthy manufacturing process
   5.3. Opportunities
        5.3.1. Shift from egg-based to cell-based manufacturing
        5.3.2. Market for adjuvants
        5.3.3. Opportunity for emerging economies
   5.4. Manufacturing process of influenza vaccines
        5.4.1. Egg-based manufacturing
        5.4.2. Cell-based manufacturing
        5.4.3. Recombinant technology
   5.5. Intramuscular H1N1 vaccine market
        5.5.1. Drivers & restraints
               5.5.1.1. Caters to large population segment
               5.5.1.2. Rates low on user- friendliness
   5.6. Intranasal H1N1 vaccine
        5.6.1. Drivers & restraints
               5.6.1.1. User-friendly administration
               5.6.1.2. Fewer side-effects & improved efficacy
               5.6.1.3. Insurance coverage
               5.6.1.4. Limited consumer segment
        5.6.2. Competitive Analysis
   5.7. Benchmarking of approved vaccine
        5.7.1. Pipeline overview of H1N1 vaccine
 
6. GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL H1N1 VACCINE MARKET
   6.1. Moon matrix analysis of global 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccine, by geography
        6.1.1. Healthcare expenditure & government contracts
        6.1.1. Spread of H1N1 & availability of H1N1 vaccine
   6.2. North American H1N1 vaccine market
        6.2.1. Drivers & restraints
   6.3. Europe H1N1 vaccine market
        6.3.1. Drivers & restraints
   6.4. Asia Pacific H1N1 vaccine market
        6.4.1. Australia
        6.4.2. China
        6.4.3. Japan
        6.4.4. India
   6.4. Rest of World (ROW) H1N1 vaccine market

7. STRATEGIC CONCLUSION

8. COMPANY PROFILES
   8.1. BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC
   8.2. BUTANTAN INSTITUTE
   8.3. CANTACUZINO INSTITUTE OF SERA AND VACCINES
   8.4. CHANGCHUN INSTITUTE OF BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS
   8.5. CRUCELL N.V.
   8.6. CSL
   8.7. DENKA SEIKEN CO LTD
   8.8. GREEN CROSS CORP
   8.9. GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC
   8.10. HUALAN BIOLOGICAL ENGINEERING INC
   8.11. INOVIO BIOMEDICAL CORP
   8.12. KITASATO INSTITUTE
   8.13. MEDIMMUNE
   8.14. MERCK & CO
   8.15. NOVARTIS
   8.16. NOVAVAX
   8.17. OMNINVEST
   8.18. PANACEA BIOTEC
   8.19. SANOFI-PASTEUR
   8.20. SHANGHAI INSTITUTE OF BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS
   8.21. SINOVAC BIOTECH LTD
   8.22. SERUM INSTITUTE OF INDIA LTD
   8.23. SOLVAY
   8.24. ZHEJIANG TIANYUAN BIO-PHARMACEUTICAL CO, LTD
 
Appendix
World H1N1 influenza cases in october 2009
Country wise death rates by H1N1 flu till october 2009

LIST OF TABLES
Summary table global market for 2009 h1n1 influenza vaccine by products 2009 – 2011 ($Millions)
1 WHO-defined levels of influenza pandemic
2 Global H1N1 2009 influenza vaccine market, by products 2009 – 2011 ($Millions)
3 Global H1N1 influenza vaccine market, by geography 2009 – 2011 ($Millions)
4 Global Market for intramuscular H1N1 vaccines, by geography 2009 – 2011 ($Millions)
5 Government intiatives for H1N1 vaccine
6 Contracts for H1N1 vaccine
7 Market development for H1N1 vaccine
8 Benchmarking of vaccine
9 Technology & delivery of vaccine
10 H1N1 vaccine trials
11 North American market for H1N1 influenza vaccine, 2009 – 2011 ($Millions)
12 Asia Pacific market for H1N1 vaccine, 2009- 2011 ($Millions)

LIST OF FIGURES
1 Pandemic wave diagram – spanish influenza
2 Spanish flu fatalities in the U.S. (1918-1919)
3 Pandemic scenario of Hong Kong flu
4 Pandemic influenza cycle
5 H1N1 2009 influenza vaccine market dynamics
6 Tier pricing model for H1N1 vaccine
7 Consumer perspective for H1N1 vaccine market
8 Product lifecycle in H1N1 vaccine market
9 Recommended priority groups for 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccine
10 Timeline of commercialization of H1N1 vaccine
11 Contract sharing of companies (2009)
12 Global scenario of influenza pandemic
13 Global H1N1 influenza vaccine market, by geography
14 Moon matrix of H1N1 vaccine market, by geography

Opportunity Analysis- H1N1 (Swine Flu) Vaccination Market (2009-2012)

H1N1 Influenza A (2009) is the first pandemic influenza of 21st century affecting more than more than four lac people in more than 180 countries across the globe in 2009.  The flu broke in Mexico in the month of March and then affected U.S. and after that it spread across the globe.  H1N1 (2009) influenza have a mutation of pig, bird and humans which has made it more dangerous and fatal compared to previous occurrence of H1N1 (1918).

The pandemic outbreak of the influenza opened the gates for the drugs such as Tamiflu in the initial phase for the curing of the disease but the following phase will see a shift from curing to prevention.  Thus, arise the requirement for the vaccine for the treatment of H1N1. H1N1 vaccine market is the forecast for the upcoming vaccines for the prevention of the disease among the unaffected population. The vaccines market is classified for the intramuscular vaccines and intranasal vaccines. Intramuscular will cater 80-85% of market revenues and the remaining will be tapped by the intranasal vaccines. The initial lot of vaccines will be of egg based and cell based manufacturing. The market forecast is from late 2009 as the first lot of doses are expected to be rolled out in the first week of October 2009.

The first movers of the in the vaccines market are Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK), Novartis, CSL, Medimmune, Baxter, Sinovac and Sanofi Pastuer. Medimmune is the only producer of the intranasal vaccine whereas other companies are expected to come out with intramuscular vaccines. The companies have got approvals for their first lots from the governments of the various countries such as U.S., U.K., France, China, Denmark and Australia. The involvement of government bodies, increased awareness about prevention and pandemic situation of the influenza is driving the market for the vaccines.

Due to intensive ongoing research and technology introduction, the market players are compelled to understand the market dynamics, innovations,  pricing, products, marketing and regulatory framework of the market.

The global H1N1 Influenza vaccine market is estimated to be of 676 million in 2009 with first lot of doses being commercialized on 30th September’ 2009. The market will see a high CAGR for the next two years i.e. the market is expected to be at $7.03 billion in 2011 with a CAGR of 222.4% from 2009 to 2011.

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