Autonomous Train Market

[261 Pages Report] The global autonomous train market size was valued at USD 13.6 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 18.9 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.7% during the forecast period 2024-2030.  During the forecast period, Asia Pacific is expected to lead the autonomous train market, followed by Europe. Metro line installation continues to grow rapidly in the Asia Pacific area. Because of this, the automated metro market in the area seems promising. Owing to expanding government spending on transportation, the ongoing and forthcoming projects in many nations, and the developing infrastructure advancements, the Asia Pacific area is the largest growing region in global market. The market for autonomous trains is anticipated to be driven largely by rising levels of automation and the need for safe, effective transportation.

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Market Dynamics:

Driver: Increased safety operational benefits

Trains with high levels of automation allow for greater control over speed and the creation of efficient traffic control plans. It also lessens the possibility of accidents brought on by human error.

Lawsuits arising from accidents brought on by train drivers' carelessness or incapacity are costly. The European Union and the railroad industry fund the public-private cooperation known as Shift2Rail, which aims to give the European rail network a high degree of safety, interoperability, and reliability. An operational safety enhancement tool called Automated Train Operation is utilized to assist in automating train operations. The Grade of Automation (GOA), which goes up to GOA level 4 (where the train is autonomously managed without any people on board), indicates the level of automation. Since it is simpler to guarantee human safety on transit and rapid transit systems, ATO is mostly utilized there. Most systems have a driver installed to reduce the possibility of malfunctions or emergencies. In July 2023, Hitachi Ltd developed the first fully autonomous metro- Skyline in Honolulu, US with automatic train operation (ATO) GoA4 (Grade of Automation) system.

Restraint: Slow growth rate of GDP and inadequate infrastructure spending in developing countries

The autonomous train system requires efficient infrastructure and adequate transportation services. The introduction of such advanced technology is primarily observed in the developed nations such as the U.S., U.K., and Japan. Further, the developing economies including India, Brazil, and South Africa are also planning to deploy the autonomous train system. However, due to the high cost involved in infrastructure development and land acquisition, the implementation of autonomous train transportation is at a slow pace in developing countries. The smart public transportation system requires a robust infrastructure. In developing countries such as India, Brazil, and South Africa, infrastructure is still in a very nascent stage. It requires prominent efforts for the adoption of innovative technologies to suit the existing railway networks. The market for autonomous trains would expand  slowly overall in developing nations . As number of developing nations continue to lack the funding necessary to upgrade their rail systems. A few nations with underdeveloped rail systems include Uganda, Nigeria, Albania, Uruguay, and Colombia. Investing in railway infrastructure becomes more important for nations without robust railway networks than digitalizing existing infrastructure. The implementation of modern digital technology requires a robust rail and communication infrastructure. Specific digital technologies, including passenger analytics and traffic management, are only effective when used at a specific size. It is unlikely that many developing nations with weak communication and rail systems will implement autonomous train technologies very soon.

Opportunity: Transforming mining logistics with autonomous trains

Mining firms, particularly those in the Americas, Australia, and Europe, consider Autonomous Haulage Systems (AHS) as a more cost-effective, dependable, and safe alternative for operating mines due to the high labor expenses and potential hazards associated with the terrain. Furthermore, autonomous haulage systems can improve productivity and efficiency while monitoring sustainability and safety. Bombardier’s (Canada) INTERFLO system is the optimal choice for both industrial automated haulage systems and heavy haulage lines. It provides maximum rail capacity with the least amount of wayside space.

In July 2023, Hexagon AB (Sweden), and Mineral Resources (MinRes) (Australia) jointly ventured to provide an autonomous haulage solution for a fleet of 120 fully autonomous road trains in Australia, to transform safety, productivity and sustainability in the region. Thus, autonomous trains will remove the risk of driver fatigue, lower operating costs and reduce fuel use and emissions.

Challenge: Inability of DTO systems to carry out required protection functions during emergency situations and lack of human intervention

Emergency situations in urban rail transit systems can disrupt normal operations of the railway; these situations must be dealt with immediately. Most of these emergency situations are caused by human error. Though automated metro systems have no drivers, and some work of dispatchers is carried out by DTO systems, the emergency management still heavily depends on traffic dispatchers. According to the Modular Urban Guided Rail System (MODURBAN) statement, the detection and management of hazardous situations should involve traffic dispatchers, even for autonomous or driverless trains with the highest GOA. Equipment failure, passenger behavior, social disasters, etc., may often cause emergency situations in running trains. In such scenarios, DTO systems may not be able to carry out automated protection functions. Thus, systems used in autonomous or driverless trains should be failure proof so that these systems can perform their required functions in emergency situations as well. The presence of drivers in trains results in their continuous interaction with passengers in the form of announcements, guidelines, and interpretation of various environmental conditions. However, in the absence of drivers, the link between passengers and the metro system is lost. In autonomous or driverless trains, there is no driver to detect and troubleshoot small system failures or pass the information to a control center about the system failure or current situation in the train.

Market Ecosystem

Note: Autonomous train market ecosystem consists of Tier 1: System Integrators: These are the companies responsible for designing, integrating, and testing the complete autonomous train system, including hardware, software, and communication infrastructure. Examples, Toshiba Corporation, Tech Mahindra Ltd. Tier 2: Subcomponent Suppliers: These companies provide individual components and subsystems to Tier 1 integrators, such as: sensors (lidar, radar, cameras), computing hardware and software, communication systems (5g, cellular), propulsion systems (electric motors, batteries) and Service /solution provider companies offer various services related to the operation and maintenance of autonomous trains, Atos SE and Sierra Wireless are some of them.

The Metro/Monorail train segment is estimated to be the fastest growing  market during the forecast period.

In terms of volume, the market's metro/monorail train segment is anticipated to expand at the fastest rate during the forecast period with a CAGR of 7.4%. Increasing need for urban transit and increased traffic, the metro/monorail train segment is anticipated to grow at the fastest rate. The urban cities are overcrowded during rush hours, causing significant delays. Thus, governments across various countries are investing in metro/monorail projects to develop and enhance the urban transport network, making it punctual, safe to use and comfortable. It helps to boost the growing demand for autonomous metro/monorail market segment. For instance, Dominican Republic (Latin America) has invested USD 544.84 million to build first monorail led by Alstom SA. Under this contract, Alstom SA is responsible of the system's integration, testing, and commissioning as well as the provision of 13 Inoovia monorail trains, each of these with four carriages, driverless signaling, power supply, track installation, high-speed switchgear system, and related depot equipment. To provide transportation facilities in densely populated cities, China successfully tested Skytrain monorail in May 2023 at a maximum speed of 60 km/h. The Government initiative for urban transport network and technological advancement drives the metro/monorail train segment.

GoA 2 segment is largest market to lead between 2024 and 2030 for Autonomous Train Market by Grade of Automation (GoA).

During the course of the projection period, an excellent rate of growth is anticipated in the autonomous train market, broken down by automation grade. Between 2024 and 2030, the GOA 2 segment is anticipated to dominate the market. This market sector, which is featured in a number of train classifications, represents one of the fundamental levels of automation in trains. During the forecast period, the market's GOA 4 category is anticipated to develop at the greatest CAGR. The need for greater safety as well as cost savings and rail network optimization, as well as other ongoing projects and countries investment on infrastructure and transportation, are the primary drivers of the GOA 4 segment's growth. The GOA 2 category is the largest market by grade of automation (GOA) since the GOA 4 segment is primarily driven by ongoing projects.

Camera segment is expected to be the largest market between 2024 and 2030 for Autonomous Train Market by component.

Due to the requirement to maintain track on trains for safety precautions, the camera sector is projected to have the largest market size of the autonomous train industry. Additionally, external cameras can be mounted on a train to help train operators make sure that entrances are clear, perhaps preventing accidents. Additionally, cameras aid in the monitoring of the pantograph, which is essential to the operation of trains that draw power from overhead lines. Train operators are able to determine the cause and timing of a pantograph failure owing to clear film of the device. This market is anticipated to grow from 386 thousand units in 2024 to 650 thousand units by 2030. The camera segment of the autonomous train market is growing as a result of advancements in lens technology for safety and accident prevention.

Asia Pacific held the largest market share of the autonomous market in 2030.

Asia Pacific is the largest and the fastest growing region in the global autonomous train market because of the development of rail infrastructure, increase in government spending on the transportation sector, and ongoing/upcoming projects in various countries of this region.  Countries such as China, Japan, India, and South Korea are supporting the growth of the railway industry. In May 2023, Japanese railways announced by 2028 driverless bullet train will be in operation for passengers. Tokaido Shinkansen bullet train is equipped with automatic train operation (ATO) technology. Also, in May 2021, Siemens announced a supply contract for main control centers with Korean National Railway’s company EntechWorld. The main SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisitions) control centers will be controlling and monitoring 3.5 million passengers daily in the Korean railway system. The trains will be operational from 2024. With the increased focus on high-speed rail programs in China, investments in the country’s rail infrastructure and equipment have increased. China announced the investments worth USD 51.6 billion in the railway sector during the first half of 2023. In February 2024, China has started high speed rail freight lines from Chongqing and Zhengzhou in central China. The new freight line covers over a thousand kilometers within five hours while carrying freight of up to 15 metric tons. In December 2021, China launched a new high-speed railway line in Shandong province and launched two new high-speed railway lines in its Central and North-East regions.

In 2023, the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (DFCCIL) announced that Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor, are operational with full service on the entire 1,337km route from November 2023 and around 70 percent of the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor is completed. Metro systems are available in 12 cities in India, while approximately 500 km metro lines are under construction in 15 other cities. The Indian government has allocated a fund of USD 306.05 million in the budget for 2024-25 for the purchase modern Vande Bharat trains, the installation of new rails, the doubling of lines on already-existing routes, and the nationwide deployment of automated train safety technology Kavach These developments are expected to fuel the growth of the market.

Key Market Players

The global autonomous train market is dominated by major players Alstom SA (France) , Siemens AG (Germany), Hitachi Ltd. (Japan), Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (Wabtec) (US), and Thales Group (France). These companies have strong distribution networks at a global level. In addition, these companies offer an extensive product range in this market. These companies have adopted both organic and inorganic strategies such as new product developments, acquisition, partnership and others to strengthen their market position in the market.

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Scope of the Report

By Level of Automation

• GoA 1
• GoA 2
• GoA 3
• GoA 4

By Train Type

• Metro/Monorail
• Light Rail
• High-speed Rail/Bullet Train

By Technology

• CBTC
• ERTMS
• PTC
• ATC

By Application

• Passenger Train
• Freight Train

By Component

• Tachometer
• Doppler
• Accelerometer
• Camera
• Antenna
• Radio Set
• Odometer
• RADAR
• LiDAR

By Track Length

• Asia Pacific
• Europe
• North America
• Middle East & Africa
• RoW

By GOA 4 ongoing and upcoming projects

• Asia Pacific
• Europe
• North America

Based on region:

• Asia Pacific
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • South Korea
• North America
  • US
  • Canada
  • Mexico
• Europe
  • France
  • Germany
  • UK
  • Italy
  • Spain
• Middle East & Africa
  • UAE
  • South Africa
• Rest of the World
  • Brazil
  • Iran

Recent Developments

• In January 2024, Siemens AG installed ETCS in two trainsets operating in the Pääkaupunkiseudun Junakalusto Oy fleet as a part of Finnish DigiRail project. The state of Sweden will test ETCS in accordance with the most recent standards outlined in the European technical specification, TSI 2023. 
• In January 2024, Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (Wabtec) has developed Trip Optimizer, energy-management software to efficiently operate trains for more than 1 billion auto miles. The software automatically controls locomotive throttle and dynamic brakes to reduce fuel burn and provide efficient train handling.
• In December 2023, Alstom SA’s Innovia monorail trains entered commercial service on Bangkok’s MRT Pink Line in Thailand. The 34.5 km Pink Line has 30 stations and will connect the heavily congested Khae Rai to Min Buri. The new monorail will be elevated and equipped with automatic train operation (ATO) grade of operation 4 (GoA4) which enables the monorail to operate in a fully automated state, without the interference of a driver or attendants.
• In September 2023, CRRC developed articulated light rail train for Mexico City Electric Transportation Authority (STE) at CRRC Zhuzhou. It is equipped with advanced systems and barrier-free facilities.
• In July 2023, Hitachi Ltd. has launched ‘Over and Back’ testing solution to enable the fast and seamless switching between existing interlocking (a railway signaling system) and soon to be introduce the new digital signaling system (European Train Control System – ETCS L2) as part of South East Queensland’s Cross River Rail project in Brisbane.

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