Electric Bus Market by Propulsion (BEV, FCEV), Battery (NMC, LFP, NCA, Other), Length (<9m, 9-14m, >14m), Seating Capacity, Range, Battery Capacity, Power Output, Level of Autonomy, Application, Component, Consumer and Region - Global Forecast to 2030
[333 Pages Report] MarketsandMarkets: The global electric bus market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 41.7% during the forecast period, from an estimated market size of USD 58.9 billion in 2023 to USD 678.3 billion by 2030. The market is driven by factors such as demand for zero-emission vehicles, growing environmental concerns, and government initiatives promoting sustainable transportation drive the electric bus market.
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Market Dynamics
DRIVER: Rising GHG Emissions
Vehicle emissions are responsible for discharging around 29% of ozone-depleting substances that cause air pollution, with the transport sector being the largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Many countries have announced goals to reduce GHG emissions, compelling bus manufacturers to adopt electric solutions. The Colorado emission reduction target in the US was established in 2019. It has targeted a 26% reduction by 2025, a 50% reduction by 2030, and a 90% reduction by 2050, with its 2005 levels as the baseline. Germany has set the target for achieving at least 65% less carbon emission from its 1990 level by 2030. The Netherlands, one of the frontiers in adopting electric buses, already has more than 25% of electric public buses in its daily operations and aims to have its entire public bus transport emission-free by 2030. This is expected to boost the electric bus market further.
RESTRAINT:Safety concerns in EV batteries and high development costs
Most electric vehicle (EV) batteries used in electric buses are considered safe as they undergo various tests before being used. However, according to the US National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), most EV fires in the states from 2013 to 2017 resulted from battery power systems. The association has also stated that the major reasons behind the EV battery fire were heavy temperature fluctuations, heavy rain, and overcharging. Manufacturing companies in many countries, including the US, China, Japan, and the European Union (EU), are mandated to emphasize the continuous monitoring of battery safety, health, and performance. The key electric bus-specific standards include limiting chemical spillage from batteries, securing batteries during a crash, and isolating the chassis from the high-voltage system to prevent electric shock.
Furthermore, the battery demands a management system to maintain the optimum working temperature and protection. However, such developments of advanced battery management systems demand a high investment of time and money from the manufacturers. An increase in the development cost affects the overall initial cost of vehicles, which the buyer bears in turn. In the case of electric buses, the battery pack size depends on the vehicle's driving range, and the battery size influences the cost of the battery. Also, the big battery size (weight and volume) complicates electric buses' body and chassis design. These batteries need to be replaced at least once or twice in the entire operating life of the bus, depending upon various parameters, such as distance traveled annually/per day, operating temperature, and charging level/rate. This is generally one of the major expenses in terms of the total cost of ownership. Therefore, such high initial and maintenance costs are expected to be major restraints for market growth.
OPPORTUNITY: Transition toward hydrogen fuel-cell electric mobility
Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) use pure hydrogen as their fuel, with residues being only water and heat. Hence, these vehicles emit no harmful substances, such as GHG and particulate matter. Fuels like diesel and gasoline emit GHGs, such as CO2, CO, NOx, and hydrocarbons (HC). These gases and particulate matters lead to climate change and global warming. Hence, using hydrogen power for transportation and commercial and industrial purposes would reduce GHG emissions significantly.
CHALLENGE: High cost of developing charging infrastructure
Electric buses have a longer charging duration but a lower driving range per charge. The performance and service life of batteries directly affect the performance and cost of an electric bus. Lithium-ion batteries are gradually replacing lead-acid, nickel-cadmium, and nickel-metal hydride batteries in electric buses, as they offer a longer battery life. However, the capacity of lithium-ion batteries is too low to power commercial vehicles, such as electric buses, as heavy loads require more power to create maximum torque. In cold climates, these batteries' charging-discharging performance declines significantly, making it difficult to provide maximum power.
According to Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI), current electric buses still have an insufficient battery capacity, affecting their cooling performances. Currently, available charging devices take longer durations to charge electric buses. The average time required to charge an EV from 0% to 100% with a 7-kW charging point is more than 4 hours. Furthermore, as per industry experts, the number of charging stations installed in urban areas of Europe, North America, and other developed regions still needs to be increased. The number of charging stations in Eastern Europe is lesser than that in Northern Europe.
Electric Bus Ecosystem:
Intracity is estimated as the largest electric bus application over the forecast period.
Given rapid urbanization, clean mobility solutions have become critical. The growing urban population would drive the need for extensive urban transportation, which holds a vast potential for electric mobility. Furthermore, many leading OEMs such as BYD (China), Proterra (US), AB Volvo (Sweden), Ebusco (Belgium) and others are offering electric buses for intracity applications in their product line. For instance, in 2022, King Long (China) introduced its K06-XMQ6601 electric bus with a low floor design, which greatly aids intracity transport. For instance 2021, Nova Bus (Canada) announced a supply order from the Chicago Transit Authority for 600 new 40-foot electric buses for their intracity operations. Asia Pacific is expected to lead the intracity segment of the electric bus market due to increased emission regulations and in-city restrictions. Various countries in the region have chosen to use sustainable mobility in their public transportation. For instance, electric buses have been deployed in several cities in India, including the Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation. This state-owned public transport operator plans to replace 15% of its fleet with electric, which accounts for 2,700 buses out of its 18,000 buses. Such initiatives in this region are expected to drive the growth of the electric bus market during the forecast period.
The government, as consumers, will dominate the market.
Governments are adopting electric buses as a safe and sustainable means of public transport. Various governments worldwide offer supply contracts to OEMs for electric buses to be used in their public transportation services. For instance, in 2021, the Federal Environment Ministry (BMU) in Germany sanctioned USD 784 million to purchase electric buses and charging infrastructure. Such large budgets from governments to achieve their sustainability targets increase the adoption of electric buses by the government sector. Asia Pacific is expected to dominate the government segment during the forecast period, as most countries in this region have state-owned public transport networks. Governments in this region have started adopting electric buses for public transportation, which would drive market growth in this region.
BEVs to Dominate the electric bus market
BEVs are expected to dominate the electric bus market during the forecast period. This is mainly because lithium-ion batteries have proven to be effective. Many OEMs are investing in R&D activities to develop new and efficient battery technologies, driving the growth of this segment. Favorable government regulations for BEVs would also positively impact the electric bus market. Many governments are planning to replace existing public fleets with electric ones. With attractive subsidies and tax exemptions offered by different governments, the sales volume of advanced pure electric buses is expected to grow exponentially. BEVs have relatively higher operational efficiency, about 90%, compared to ICE, which is 30–40%. The average range of BEVs is 150 to 250 miles and varies based on battery type installation. The electricity used to power the buses is less expensive than diesel, further lowering the operational costs for buses. With advancements in battery technology and a continuous drop in battery prices, the overall costs of BEVs are expected to decrease substantially. Transit agencies in the US and other countries increasingly purchase pure battery-electric buses; this trend is expected to accelerate further in the coming years.
The Asia Pacific region is the largest electric bus market during the forecast period
Asia Pacific is will be the largest market for electric buses during the forecast period. The key reason for this is the increasing need to reduce urban pollution and dependency on fossil fuels in this region, along with growing government initiatives toward clean public transportation. Many of the leading players in the electric bus market, including BYD (China), Yutong (China), King Long (China), Zhongtong (China), Tata Motors (India), Ashok Leyland (India), JBM Auto Limited (India) and many others are from Asia Pacific. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of the electric bus fleet in several countries in this region is also a ey driving factor for the region to dominate the electric bus market. The reduction in the batteries and EVs cost, and the development of charging infrastructures, also provide a great opportunity for the growth of the electric bus market. Many countries in the Asia Pacific region, including China, South Korea, India, and Japanese markets, have favorable government policies and mandates that promote the reduction of emissions and usage of green technology in public transportation.
Key Market Players
The key players in the Electric bus market BYD (China), Yutong (China), Proterra (US), CAF (Solaris) (Spain), VDL Groep (Netherlands), and AB Volvo (Sweden). The key strategies adopted by major companies to sustain their position in the market are expansions, contracts and agreements, and partnerships.
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|
Report Attribute |
Details |
|
Base year for estimation |
2023 |
|
Forecast period |
2023-2030 |
|
Market Growth forecast |
USD 58.9 billion in 2023 to USD 678.3 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 41.7% |
|
Top Players |
BYD (China), Yutong (China), Proterra (US), CAF (Solaris) (Spain), VDL Groep (Netherlands), and AB Volvo (Sweden) |
|
Segments covered |
|
|
Propulsion |
BEVs and FCEVs |
|
Battery Type |
NMC Batteries, LFP Batteries, NCA batteries, Others Batteries |
|
Consumer |
Government and Private |
|
Length of Bus |
Up to 9 m, 9−14 m, and Above 14 m |
|
Seating Capacity |
Up to 40 Seats, 40−70 Seats, and Above 70 Seats |
|
Level of Autonomy |
Semi-autonomous and Autonomous |
|
Range |
Up to 200 Miles and Above 200 Miles |
|
Application |
Intercity and Intracity |
|
Battery Capacity |
Up to 400 kWh and Above 400 kWh |
|
Power Output |
Up to 250 kW and Above 250 kW |
|
Component |
Batteries, Motors, Fuel Cell Stacks, Battery Management Systems, Battery Cooling Systems, DC-DC Converters, Inverters, AC/DC Chargers, And EV Connectors |
The study categorizes the Electric bus market based on vehicle type, technology and components at regional and global levels.
By Propulsion
- BEVs
- FCEVs
Battery Type
- NMC batteries
- LFP batteries
- NCA batteries
- Other batteries
Consumer
- Government
- Private
Length of Bus
- Up to 9 m
- 9−14 m
- Above 14 m
Seating Capacity
- Up to 40 Seats
- 40−70 Seats
- Above 70 Seats
Level of Autonomy
- Semi-autonomous
- Autonomous
Range
- Up to 200 Miles
- Above 200 Miles
Application
- Intercity
- Intracity
Battery Capacity
- Up to 400 kWh
- Above 400 kWh
Power Output
- Up to 250 Kw
- Above 250 kW
Component
- Batteries
- Motors
- Fuel Cell Stacks
- Battery Management Systems
- Battery Cooling Systems
- DC-DC Converters
- Inverters
- AC/DC Chargers
- EV Connectors
Recent Developments
- In January 2022, the Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) in Santa Clara City, US, will install an innovative clean energy microgrid and EV fleet charging system with Proterra and Scale Microgrid Solutions. This project will showcase how clean energy paired with fleet-scale EV charging can enable the adoption of fully electric vehicle fleets. Expected to come online in late 2023, it will help VTA further reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
- In January 2023, Daimler received an order to supply 45 buses to VLP Transport for intercity transport.
- In September 2022, the Urbino 18 model is equipped with a modern hydrogen fuel cell, which aids long-distance commuting as it can cover 350 km in a single refill with a passenger capacity of 138 seats.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ):
What are this market's major drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challenges?
Drivers: Rising GHG emissions, increasing need for sustainable mobility solutions, and reduced EV battery prices.
Restraint: Safety Concerns in EV Batteries
Opportunity: Transition towards hydrogen fuel cell electric mobility
Challenges: High cost of developing charging infrastructure
What are the recent innovations in the electric bus market considering the level of autonomy?
Many OEMs are actively developing level 4/5 autonomous electric buses, which can intelligently control acceleration, steering, driving environment monitoring, and dynamic driving tasks. For instance, in 2021, Iveco Bus (Netherlands) and driverless technology provider EasyMile (France) partnered and completed testing a fully driverless standard bus prototype capable of operating under real conditions.
How does bus electrification impact the other players in the ecosystem?
Because of the increasing electrification of buses, other players such as tier I and tier II suppliers, including components suppliers, engine manufacturers, and others, have started to develop components that are demanded in the electric bus market.
What is the Total Cost of Ownership of electric buses?
The total cost of ownership for a new 12m electric bus will range between USD 0.35/Km to USD 0.55/Km.
Who are the leading market players in the electric bus market?
The electric bus market is dominated by a few globally established players, such as BYD (Build Your Dreams) (China), Proterra (US), CRRC Electric (China), Yutong (China), and AB Volvo (Sweden).
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The research study involved extensive use of secondary sources such as company annual reports/presentations, industry association publications, automotive powertrain magazine articles, directories, technical handbooks, World Economic Outlook, trade websites, technical articles, and databases to identify and collect information on the Electric Bus Market. Primary sources—experts from related industries, after-treatment devices suppliers, technology suppliers, sensor manufacturers, and software providers—were interviewed to obtain and verify critical information and assess the growth prospects and market estimations.
Secondary Research
Secondary sources for this research study included electric vehicles industry organizations such as the World Electric Vehicle Association and corporate filings such as annual reports, investor presentations, and financial statements. Secondary data was collected and analyzed to determine the total market size, further validated by primary research.
Primary Research
Extensive primary research was conducted through secondary research after understanding the electric bus market scenario. Several primary interviews were conducted with market experts from both the demand (OEMs) and supply (electric bus and component manufacturers) sides across major regions, namely Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East & Africa, and North America. Approximately 75% and 25% primary interviews were conducted from the OEM and Tier I/Tier II players, respectively. Primary data was collected through questionnaires, emails, and telephonic interviews. In the canvassing of primaries, various departments within organizations, such as sales, operations, and marketing, were covered to provide a holistic viewpoint in the report.
After interacting with industry experts, brief sessions were conducted with highly experienced independent consultants to reinforce the findings from primaries. This and the in-house subject matter experts’ opinions led to the findings described in the remainder of this report.
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Market Size Estimation
Bottom-Up Approach: Electric Bus Market
The bottom-up approach was used to estimate and validate the size of the electric bus market. The size of the electric bus market, by propulsion, in terms of volume and value, was derived by collecting country-level sales of electric buses in units. This gives the volume market for electric buses. Further, the summation of all countries led to the regional-level market in volume.
Bottom-up Approach
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Top-Down Approach: Electric Bus Market
The top-down approach was followed for the electric bus market by range, component, length of the bus, battery type, battery capacity, power output, consumer, level of autonomy, seating capacity, and application. For deriving the market size for electric buses by application, in terms of volume, the total volume of the electric bus market was multiplied by the penetration percentage of application (intercity and intracity at the regional level). This gives the electric bus market by application in terms of volume. A similar approach was used for calculating the electric bus market by range, battery type, battery capacity, application, consumer, power output, component, length of bus, and seating capacity.
Top-Down Approach
Data Triangulation
After arriving at the overall size of the vehicles complying with the Electric Bus Market through the methodology as mentioned above, the market was split into several segments and subsegments. Data triangulation is a research technique used to increase the validity and reliability of findings by cross-validating data from multiple sources or methods. This technique involves the use of multiple sources of data, such as surveys, interviews, observations, and secondary data, to confirm and corroborate the findings obtained from each source. The extrapolated market data was triangulated by studying various macro indicators and regional trends from both the supply and demand sides.
Market Definition
Fully electric buses are powered by batteries, while hybrid buses utilize a combination of ICE and battery power. These buses are used for the mass transportation of passengers. The batteries can be charged through an off-board top-down pantograph, on-board bottom-up pantograph, and connector. According to Proterra (US), an electric bus as a bus that is powered by one or more electric motors, which are powered by a battery or a hydrogen fuel cell system. According to BYD (China), an electric bus is a bus that is powered by an electric motor and a battery pack, which is charged by plugging it into an electric power source.
Key Stakeholders
- Senior Management
- End User
- Finance/Procurement Department
- R&D Department
Report Objectives
-
To segment and forecast the electric bus market size in terms of volume & value:
- By propulsion (BEVs and FCEVs)
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By length of the bus (less than 9 m, 9–14 m,
more than 14 m) - By component (batteries, motors, fuel cell stacks, battery management systems, battery cooling systems, DC-DC converters, inverters, AC/DC chargers, and EV connectors)
- By range (up to 200 miles and above 200 miles)
- By power output (up to 250 kW and above 250 kW)
-
By battery capacity (up to 400 kWh and above
400 kWh) - By application (intracity and intercity)
- By battery type (NMC batteries, LFP batteries, NCA batteries, and other batteries)
- By seating capacity (up to 40 seats, 40–70 seats, and above 70 seats)
- By consumers (government and private)
- By level of autonomy (semi-autonomous and autonomous)
- By region (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa)
- To provide detailed information about the major factors influencing the market growth (drivers, challenges, restraints, and opportunities)
- To strategically analyze the market concerning individual growth trends, prospects, and contributions to the total market
- To track and analyze competitive developments, such as product launches, deals, and other activities by key industry participants
- To strategically analyze the market with value chain analysis, bill of materials, revenue analysis, and regulatory analysis in the electric bus market
- To examine the opportunities in the market for stakeholders and provide details of the competitive landscape for market leaders
Generating Response ...
Growth opportunities and latent adjacency in Electric Bus Market
MnM while conducting the given research on “Electric Bus Market” have contacted and conducted primary interviews from all major players from the Electric Vehicle eco-system consisting of Bus manufacturers, bus components manufacturers, EV charging infrastructure service and equipment providers, EV experts, country level government associations and agencies etc. All major market numbers, penetration rates and growth rates have been discussed and validated through primary interviews.