North America HVAC System Market worth $57.6 billion by 2030
The report "North America HVAC System Market by Cooling (AC, VRF, Chiller, Cooling Tower, Cooler), Heating (Heat Pump, Boiler, Unitary Heater, Furnace), Ventilation (AHU, Air Filter, Humidifier, Purifier), Technology (Smart, Sustainable) - Forecast to 2030" is projected to grow from USD 42.2 billion in 2025 and to reach USD 57.6 billion by 2030, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.4% during the forecast period.
Browse 190 market data Tables and 60 Figures spread through 240 Pages and in-depth TOC on "North America HVAC System Market by Cooling (AC, VRF, Chiller, Cooling Tower, Cooler), Heating (Heat Pump, Boiler, Unitary Heater, Furnace), Ventilation (AHU, Air Filter, Humidifier, Purifier), Technology (Smart, Sustainable) - Forecast to 2030"
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The North American HVAC system market is steadily growing, driven by extreme weather events, increased construction activity, and a strong focus on energy-efficient buildings. The trend of replacing old HVAC systems with high-efficiency models, along with the adoption of smart thermostats and building automation, is fueled by demand from commercial spaces such as offices, data centers, and healthcare facilities. Government regulations and programs, including stricter DOE efficiency standards, ASHRAE guidelines, and building energy codes, encourage the adoption of high-SEER air conditioners, heat pumps, and advanced ventilation systems. Significant growth opportunities exist in green buildings, retrofit projects, low-GWP refrigerant systems, and indoor air quality solutions, especially following the pandemic. Overall, the market is moving toward smart, energy-efficient, and environmentally sustainable HVAC solutions.
In North America, HVAC systems are increasingly adopting smart, connected technologies, leading to notable improvements in efficiency, comfort, and sustainability. Smart HVAC systems, equipped with IoT-enabled thermostats, sensors, and building automation, allow real-time remote control, predictive maintenance, and energy optimization. Meanwhile, heat pumps (particularly air-source and geothermal) and VRF systems are gaining popularity as energy-efficient alternatives to traditional heating and cooling units.
“The VRF segment is expected to witness the highest CAGR during the forecast period.”
Based on cooling equipment, the VRF segment is expected to achieve the highest CAGR in the North American HVAC system market during the forecast period. VRF systems are in great demand in the North American HVAC market because they provide significantly lower energy consumption, often saving 15-42% compared to traditional HVAC setups. Their zoning capability allows for customized temperature control across different areas, improving comfort while reducing energy waste. VRF systems are also space-saving due to less ductwork needed, making them ideal for retrofits, high-rise buildings, and commercial projects. With stricter energy regulations and a move toward smart, sustainable infrastructure, VRF adoption continues to grow rapidly as one of the fastest-growing HVAC technologies in the US.
“The heat pump segment is projected to capture the largest share of the North America HVAC system market in 2025.”
By heating equipment, the heat pump segment is expected to hold the largest market share in 2025. Heat pumps are gaining significant traction in the North American HVAC market due to policies that promote electrification and aim to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Federal incentives, including IRA tax credits of up to USD 2,000 and rebates for low-income households, are speeding up adoption. Heat pumps deliver 2 to 4 times the efficiency of gas furnaces, lowering utility bills and cutting emissions. Demand is especially high in colder states, as advanced cold climate heat pumps now perform efficiently even below freezing, making them a preferred choice for both residential retrofits and new construction.
“Commercial applications are projected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period in the North America HVAC system market.”
Commercial HVAC demand in North America is increasing due to rising energy compliance pressures and the rapid expansion of mission-critical facilities, such as data centers and healthcare campuses. Data centers alone require precise cooling and are expected to use over 20% more HVAC capacity by 2027 because of the rise in AI workloads. In commercial real estate, approximately 65% of tenants now prioritize IAQ technologies when choosing leases, which drives the adoption of demand-controlled ventilation, CO2 monitoring, and adaptive cooling. Additionally, lifecycle cost modeling has changed procurement priorities, with many commercial buyers focusing on systems that lower total energy costs rather than initial capital expenditure.
Key Players
Leading players in the North American HVAC system market include Carrier (US), DAIKIN INDUSTRIES Ltd. (Japan), LG Electronics (South Korea), Lennox International Inc. (US), Johnson Controls (Ireland), Trane Technologies plc (Ireland), Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (Japan), SAMSUNG (South Korea), Fujitsu General (Japan), Panasonic Holdings Corporation (Japan), Modine (US), Whirlpool Corporation (US), Vaillant Group (Germany), Rheem Manufacturing Company (US), American Standard Heating and Air Conditioning (US), WM Technologies LLC (US), Nortek Air Management (US), AAON (US), and others.
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