North America HVAC System Market
North America HVAC System Market by Cooling (AC, VRF, Chiller, Cooling Tower, Cooler), Heating (Heat Pump, Boiler, Unitary Heater, Furnace), Ventilation (AHU, Air Filter, Humidifier, Purifier), Technology (Smart, Sustainable) - Forecast to 2030
OVERVIEW
Source: Secondary Research, Interviews with Experts, MarketsandMarkets Analysis
The North American HVAC system market is anticipated to attain a valuation of USD 57.6 billion by the year 2030, rising from USD 42.2 billion in 2025, with a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% during the period from 2025 to 2030. An HVAC system comprises a collection of technologies specifically engineered to regulate indoor temperature, humidity, and air quality within residential, commercial, or industrial environments. This encompasses equipment that manages air circulation, modulates temperatures through heating and cooling functions, and guarantees sufficient ventilation.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
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BY COUNTRYBy country, the US is expected to grow at the highest CAGR of 6.6% during the forecast period.
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BY HEATING EQUIPMENTBy heating equipment, the heat pump segment is expected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period.
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BY COOLING EQUIPMENTBy 2026, the unitary air conditioner is expected to dominate the cooling equipment market with an approximate share of 70-75%.
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BY VENTILATION EQUIPMENTBy ventilation equipment, the air handling unit segment is expected to register the highest CAGR.
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BY TECHNOLOGYBy technology, smart HVAC systems are expected to dominate the market during the forecast period.
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BY IMPLEMENTATION TYPEBy implementation type, the new construction segment is expected to grow at the highest CAGR.
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BY SERVICE TYPEBy service type, the upgradation/replacement services segment is expected to grow at the highest CAGR.
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BY END USERBy end user, the commercial segment is expected to grow at the highest CAGR of ~6-7% during the forecast period.
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COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE - KEY PLAYERSDaikin, Carrier, and Trane were identified as some of the star players in the North America HVAC system market, given their strong market share and product footprint.
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COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE - STARTUPS/SMESWM Technologies, AAON, and Rheem Manufacturing, among others, have distinguished themselves among SMEs by securing strong footholds in specialized niche areas, underscoring their potential as emerging market leaders.
The North American HVAC market is expected to grow rapidly over the next decade, fueled by rising demand for energy-efficient and sustainable buildings. Residential, commercial, and industrial structures utilize heating, cooling, or climate control systems to maintain comfort and indoor air quality. Climate change has increased the need for cooling and heating systems.
TRENDS & DISRUPTIONS IMPACTING CUSTOMERS' CUSTOMERS
Customer expectations and technology disruptions are transforming the HVAC industry across North America. IoT integration is becoming a key feature, enabling interconnected, smart HVAC systems throughout the US and Canada. Cloud-based monitoring, predictive maintenance, and automated diagnostics help reduce downtime and boost operational efficiency for building owners and service providers. As equipment gets smarter, real-time system analytics and remote commissioning speed up decision-making, optimize energy use, and lower lifecycle costs across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.
Source: Secondary Research, Interviews with Experts, MarketsandMarkets Analysis
MARKET DYNAMICS
Level
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Adoption of Energy-efficient HVAC in North America
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Construction Boom in US
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High HVAC Installation Costs Slowing Adoption in US
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Limited Space Restricting VRF Growth in Canada
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Expansion of IoT-enabled HVAC in North America
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Heat Pump Adoption Accelerating Across US and Canada
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Low HVAC Awareness in Mexico Hindering Market Growth
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Aging US Infrastructure Increasing Retrofit Complexity
Source: Secondary Research, Interviews with Experts, MarketsandMarkets Analysis
Driver: Adoption of Energy-efficient HVAC in North America
The North American HVAC system market is projected to grow due to increased demand for energy-efficient and sustainable buildings. Residential, commercial, and industrial structures utilize heating, cooling, or climate control systems to ensure comfort and indoor air quality. Climate change has amplified the need for cooling and heating solutions. These shifts have resulted in higher energy consumption to meet cooling needs, thereby putting more stress on air conditioners.
Restraint: High HVAC Installation Costs Slowing US Adoption
Energy-efficient HVAC systems are increasingly replacing traditional setups, incorporating innovations like ice-powered AC, motion-activated cooling, and smart vents to boost efficiency, reduce energy costs, and cut carbon emissions. While these systems save money over time, installation costs differ in residential, commercial, and industrial settings, affected by factors such as property size, ductwork needs, equipment type, and SEER rating.
Opportunity: Expansion of IoT-enabled HVAC in North America
IoT technology is revolutionizing the North American HVAC industry with smart systems that can be remotely controlled, monitored, and managed. These systems deliver real-time data on energy use, temperature, and humidity, allowing for more efficient operations. By enhancing performance, they lower energy consumption and improve system reliability, leading to significant cost savings for building owners and managers.
Challenge: Low HVAC Awareness in Mexico Hindering Market Growth
One challenge the Mexican HVAC industry faces is a lack of awareness about HVAC systems' benefits. Many people in Mexico are unfamiliar with these systems and their potential to create comfortable, healthy indoor environments. This lack of knowledge often leads to a preference for traditional cooling or heating methods, which can be less efficient and effective; they are also often seen as expensive.
North America HVAC System Market: COMMERCIAL USE CASES ACROSS INDUSTRIES
| COMPANY | USE CASE DESCRIPTION | BENEFITS |
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Johnson Controls introduced the “air365 Hybrid” dual-fuel HVAC system in the US. The system combines an electric Mini-VRF heat pump with a traditional gas furnace and automatically switches between them depending on outdoor temperature. | This hybrid solution delivers efficient heating and cooling year-round while reducing carbon emissions compared with conventional HVAC systems. Homeowners can enjoy lower energy bills when their heat pump is in operation. |
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Trane deployed a Thermal Energy Storage (TES) system in a high-rise office building in Manhattan, combining chilled water storage with HVAC cooling to handle peak loads. | The TES solution reduced greenhouse gas emissions and electricity demand during peak hours. It also delivered stable cooling performance and cost savings over traditional chiller-only HVAC systems. |
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At a community college’s central energy plant in the US, Carrier supplied a complete central-plant HVAC solution, including chillers, air handlers, and controls, to meet the new demand for campus heating, cooling, and ventilation. | The system provided reliable climate control, scaled capacity to meet campus needs, and improved energy efficiency, enabling the institution to modernize its HVAC infrastructure and meet both regulatory and comfort requirements. |
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Daikin Applied supplied a large-scale commercial HVAC solution, free-cooling chillers and advanced fan-array units for a data-center facility in the US. | The installation delivered high-capacity cooling efficiently while reducing energy usage compared to traditional chiller-only systems. |
Logos and trademarks shown above are the property of their respective owners. Their use here is for informational and illustrative purposes only.
MARKET ECOSYSTEM
The North American HVAC system ecosystem includes equipment manufacturers, control providers, system integrators, and distributors. HVAC end users consist of residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. In the commercial segment, HVAC systems are used in offices, government buildings, airports, healthcare facilities, educational institutions, and retail stores.
Logos and trademarks shown above are the property of their respective owners. Their use here is for informational and illustrative purposes only.
MARKET SEGMENTS
Source: Secondary Research, Interviews with Experts, MarketsandMarkets Analysis
North America HVAC System Market, By Technology
Traditional HVAC systems accounted for the largest share of the North American market in 2024, and the trend is expected to continue during the forecast period. This is primarily due to their extensive installed base in residential, commercial, and industrial buildings, as well as lower initial costs compared to advanced systems.
North America HVAC System Market, By Implementation Type
The new construction buildings segment is expected to lead the North American HVAC system market during the forecast period. Governments across various countries are making significant investments in infrastructure development, including expansion projects for hotels, retail stores, airports, and educational buildings. For instance, the Energy Star program by the US government provides resources and recognition to organizations that adopt energy-efficient practices, including installing energy-efficient HVAC systems.
North America HVAC System Market, By Service Type
The installation services segment is expected to lead the North America HVAC system market during the forecast period. As more buildings require efficient heating and cooling solutions, the need for professional installation services grows. Additionally, complex regulations and the necessity for specialized expertise further solidify the demand for installation services, positioning them for substantial growth in the future.
North America HVAC System Market, By End User
The commercial segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period. This segment is driven by the increasing adoption of HVAC systems in commercial buildings, growing demand for energy-efficient devices, and rising awareness regarding energy conservation in North America. Increasing government investments in the construction of commercial spaces are also expected to propel the growth of the North America HVAC system market in commercial applications.
REGION
US expected to be fastest-growing country across North American HVAC system market during forecast period
The US HVAC system market is expected to grow rapidly due to increased infrastructure development and modernization of existing buildings. Growing adoption of smart HVAC solutions, strong regulations for energy-efficient systems, and rising demand from high-growth sectors like data centers and healthcare are driving market growth. Additionally, government incentives encouraging heat pump use and indoor air quality improvements are likely to further boost system installations during the forecast period.
North America HVAC System Market: COMPANY EVALUATION MATRIX
In the North American HVAC System market landscape, Carrier and Trane Technologies (Star) lead with a strong market presence and extensive product offerings, driving widespread adoption across various industries, including commercial and industrial sectors.
Source: Secondary Research, Interviews with Experts, MarketsandMarkets Analysis
KEY MARKET PLAYERS
- Carrier (US)
- DAIKIN INDUSTRIES, Ltd. (Japan)
- Trane Technologies plc (Ireland)
- LG Electronics (South Korea)
- Lennox International Inc. (US)
- Honeywell International Inc. (US)
- Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (US)
- Panasonic Holdings Corporation (Japan)
- Modine (US)
- Rheem Manufacturing (US)
- AAON, Inc. (US)
MARKET SCOPE
| REPORT METRIC | DETAILS |
|---|---|
| Market Size in 2024 (Value) | USD 40.8 Billion |
| Market Forecast in 2030 (Value) | USD 57.6 Billion |
| Growth Rate | CAGR of 6.4% from 2025–2030 |
| Years Considered | 2021–2030 |
| Base Year | 2024 |
| Forecast Period | 2025–2030 |
| Units Considered | Value (USD MN/BN) and Volume (Million Units) |
| Report Coverage | Revenue forecast, company ranking, competitive landscape, growth factors, and trends |
| Segments Covered |
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| Regional Scope | North America (US, Canada, Mexico) |
WHAT IS IN IT FOR YOU: North America HVAC System Market REPORT CONTENT GUIDE
DELIVERED CUSTOMIZATIONS
We have successfully delivered the following deep-dive customizations:
| CLIENT REQUEST | CUSTOMIZATION DELIVERED | VALUE ADDS |
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| US-based HVAC Manufacturer |
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| Europe-Based Air Purifier & Ventilation Company |
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| Smart Building Technology Startup |
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| US-based HVAC Raw Material Supplier |
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| Commercial HVAC Customer |
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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
- September 2024 : Carrier (US) partnered with Rewiring?America (US) to speed up HVAC electrification through strategic retrofits and clean-energy adoption in some of the country’s most diverse communities, including pilot projects in Oregon, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Georgia.
- June 2024 : Trane Technologies plc (Ireland) collaborated with the US Department of Energy to complete its Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump (CCHP) Challenge. Their prototype heat pump, tested in a Boise, Idaho home over two winter and summer seasons, operated with backup electric strip heating only 10% of the time while delivering homeowners an average 15–20% energy bill savings.
- May 2024 : Lennox International Inc. (US) formed a joint venture with SAMSUNG (South Korea). This combines SAMSUNG’s 40 years of ductless and VRF HVAC innovation with Lennox’s robust North American distribution, offering both SAMSUNG-branded ductless AC, heat pump, and VRF systems and “Lennox powered by SAMSUNG” products sold through Lennox’s network.
Table of Contents
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Methodology
The research process for this study included systematic gathering, recording, and analysis of data about customers and companies operating in the North America HVAC System Market. This process involved the extensive use of secondary sources, directories, and databases (Factiva and Oanda) to identify and collect valuable information for the comprehensive, technical, market-oriented, and commercial study of the North America HVAC System Market. In-depth interviews were conducted with primary respondents, including experts from core and related industries and preferred manufacturers, to obtain and verify critical qualitative and quantitative information and assess growth prospects. Key players in the North America HVAC System Market were identified through secondary research, and their market rankings were determined through primary and secondary research. This research included studying annual reports of top players and interviewing key industry experts such as CEOs, directors, and marketing executives.
Secondary Research
Various sources were used in the secondary research process to identify and collect information important for this study. These include company annual reports, press releases, investor presentations, white papers, technology journals, certified publications, articles by recognized authors, directories, and databases.
Secondary research was mainly used to obtain key information about the industry’s value chain, the total pool of market players, the market classification according to industry trends to the bottom-most level, regional markets, and key developments from market and technology-oriented perspectives.
Primary Research
Primary research was also conducted to identify the segmentation types, key players, competitive landscape, and key market dynamics, such as drivers, restraints, opportunities, challenges, and industry trends, along with key strategies adopted by players operating in the North America HVAC System Market. Extensive qualitative and quantitative analyses were performed on the complete market engineering process to list key information and insights throughout the report.
Extensive primary research has been conducted after acquiring knowledge about the North America HVAC System Market scenarios through secondary research. Several primary interviews have been conducted with experts from the demand (end user and region) and supply side (heating equipment, cooling equipment, ventilation equipment, implementation type, system type, technology) across four major geographic regions: North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and RoW. Approximately 60% and 40% of the primary interviews were conducted from the supply and demand sides, respectively. These primary data have been collected through questionnaires, emails, and telephonic interviews.
‘Others’ include sales, marketing, and product managers.
Market Size Estimation
In the complete market engineering process, top-down and bottom-up approaches and several data triangulation methods were implemented to estimate and validate the size of the North America HVAC System Market and various other dependent submarkets. Key players in the market were identified through secondary research, and their market share in the respective regions was determined through primary and secondary research. This entire research methodology included the study of annual and financial reports of the top players, as well as interviews with experts (such as CEOs, VPs, directors, and marketing executives) for key insights (quantitative and qualitative).
All percentage shares, splits, and breakdowns were determined using secondary sources and verified through primary sources. All the possible parameters that affect the markets covered in this research study were accounted for, viewed in detail, verified through primary research, and analyzed to obtain the final quantitative and qualitative data. This data was consolidated and supplemented with detailed inputs and analysis from MarketsandMarkets and presented in this report.
Data Triangulation
After arriving at the overall market size from the estimation process explained above, the total market has been split into several segments and subsegments. To complete the overall market engineering process and arrive at the exact statistics for all segments and subsegments, market breakdown and data triangulation procedures have been employed, wherever applicable. The data have been triangulated by studying various factors and trends from the demand and supply sides. Along with this, the market has been validated using the top-down and bottom-up approaches.
Market Definition
HVAC system (Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) is a set of technologies designed to regulate indoor temperature, humidity, and air quality for homes, businesses, or industrial spaces. It includes equipment that controls air circulation, adjusts temperatures via heating and cooling, and ensures adequate ventilation.
It includes various components such as air conditioners, heat pumps, furnaces, ventilation systems, and associated controls and technologies. These components work together to maintain comfortable and healthy indoor environments. Factors like energy efficiency, regulatory standards, climate considerations, and the demand for improved indoor air quality drive the North America HVAC System Market.
Key Stakeholders
- Component Manufacturers
- Government and Research Organizations
- HVAC System Providers
- HVAC Software and Service Providers
- Maintenance and Service Providers
- Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
- Professional Services/Solution Providers
- Research Institutions and Organizations
- System Integrators
Report Objectives
- To estimate and forecast the size of the North America HVAC System Market, in terms of value, based on cooling equipment, heating equipment, ventilation equipment, technology, implementation type, service type, end user, and region
- To describe and forecast the market size, in terms of volume, based on cooling equipment, heating equipment, ventilation equipment, and region.
- To describe and forecast the market size, in terms of value, for four major regions—North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and RoW
- To provide detailed information regarding major factors such as drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challenges influencing the market growth
- To provide a detailed overview of the value chain of the North America HVAC System Market
- To strategically analyze micromarkets with regard to individual market trends, growth prospects, and contributions to the total market
- To strategically profile key players and comprehensively analyze their market position in terms of ranking and core competencies, along with a detailed competitive landscape for the market leaders
- To analyze major growth strategies such as product launches, expansions, joint ventures, agreements, and acquisitions adopted by the key market players to enhance their position in the market
- To analyze the AI impact on the North America HVAC System Market
- To analyze the US tariff impact on the North America HVAC System Market
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Growth opportunities and latent adjacency in North America HVAC System Market