The global semi-autonomous bus market size is projected to reach 71,682 units by 2025, from an estimated 23,613 units in 2020, at a CAGR of 24.9%. The base year for the report is 2019, and the forecast period is from 2020 to 2025. The semi-autonomous bus sector has witnessed rapid evolution with governments across the world regulating advanced safety features such as AEB and BSD, and OEMs offering buses with modern driver-assist features, especially in North America and Europe.
The global autonomous bus market size is projected to reach USD 2,773 million by 2030, from USD 791 million in 2024, at a CAGR of 23.2%. The forecast period is from 2024 to 2030. The autonomous bus segment is considered to be the future of public transport globally. There are already a few autonomous shuttles that are running on the roads across the world.
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Rise in road accidents, government regulations regarding safety features, shortage of drivers, growing demand for the first-mile to last-mile commuting solutions, and the increasing need for efficient bus operations have compelled automotive OEMs to develop semi-autonomous and autonomous buses. In this pursuit, automotive OEMs and technology providers are exploring ways to develop advanced autonomous driving technologies for buses. Thus, major R&D activities in self-driving buses are focused on software and sensors. Also, many bus fleet operators around the world prefer semi-autonomous buses for better safety and more efficient bus operations.
The semi-autonomous bus market is dominated by globally established players such as Continental (Germany) Bosch (Germany), Aptiv (UK), AB Volvo (Sweden), and Denso (Japan). On the other hand, EasyMile (France), Navya (France), 2getthere (Netherlands), and Local Motors (US) are some of the companies that have developed and offering autonomous buses/shuttles. These companies developed new products, adopted expansion strategies, and undertook collaborations, partnerships, and mergers & acquisitions to gain traction in this high-growth semi-autonomous and autonomous bus market. However, COVID-19 has halted production and plunged sales and have forced key players in the global automotive field to buckle up and rethink plans. Rescheduling the launch of models and projects, stabilizing dealer networks, tightly managing cash, and reviewing investment portfolios has affected the production and sales of buses across the globe, which has resulted in the negative impact on the semi-autonomous and autonomous bus market. Also, because of COVID-19, people might avoid public transport options for a few months, which would decrease the demand for buses, impacting the overall semi-autonomous bus market.
North America is projected to lead the global semi-autonomous bus market in 2020, as the region is home to many renowned OEMs such as New Flyer, Gillig, Bluebird, Thomas Built Buses, and Proterra. They are offering advanced buses incorporated with semi-autonomous driving technologies such as AEB, ACC, and BSD.
In the case of the autonomous bus market, North America is the technology leader. The region is home to some of the leading technology developers, such as Waymo, Uber, Intel, and Nvidia. These companies are focusing on the development of autonomous technology. Also, the US has begun the testing of autonomous vehicles in some states. This will create an opportunity for further development of autonomous buses. For instance, an autonomous shuttle developed by start-up, Optimus Ride, will be tested on the roads of New York in the near future.
AB Volvo is one of the leading players in the semi-autonomous and autonomous bus market. The company is continuously offering new advanced semi-autonomous buses of different specifications with innovative technologies. The company also invests heavily in the development of autonomous driving technologies for buses. For instance, in March 2019, Volvo tested its full-sized autonomous bus, which was developed with the help of Nanyang Technological University (NTU). Volvo has announced NTU, Singapore, as its global partner for autonomous bus technology that will be incorporated in its buses.
Bosch, Daimler, Continental, Aptiv, Easymile, Nvidia, Navya, and 2getthere are the other players in this market. In January 2020, Bosch became the first company to develop a production-ready long-range Lidar sensor for automotive use. It made the first LiDAR (light detection and ranging) system that is suitable for automotive use. This laser-based distance measurement technology is indispensable for driving functions at SAE Levels 3 to 5. The new Bosch sensor will cover both long and close ranges–on highways and in the city. In April 2019, Aptiv set up the China Autonomous Mobility Center in Shanghai to expand its autonomous driving capabilities to the Chinese market. Such expansions by the company are expected to boost its radar range of products. In March 2019, 2getthere was acquired by ZF Friedrichshafen AG. Both companies are focused on developing technologies for autonomous transport systems further.
Semi-Autonomous & Autonomous Bus Market by Level of Automation (Level 1, Level 2 & 3, Level 4, and Level 5), Propulsion (Diesel, Electric, and Hybrid), Application, ADAS Features, Sensor, and Region - Global Forecast to 2030
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