Small Caliber Ammunition Market by Caliber Type (9x19 MM Parabellum, 5.56 MM, 7.62 MM, 12.7 MM, 14.5 MM, .338 Lapua Magnum, .338 Norma Magnum, Others), Bullet Type (Lead, Copper, Brass, Others), Application (Military and Homeland Security), Lethality (Lethal and Less-lethal) Region – Global Forecast to 2029
The global small-caliber ammunition market size is projected to grow from USD 10.03 billion in 2024 to USD 11.91 billion in 2029, at a CAGR of 3.4% from 2024 to 2029.
Territorial conflicts and geopolitical disputes have become global issues, posing potential risks to countries and their populations. Many countries are, therefore, working to improve their military capability to counter terrorism and protect their borders due to growing geopolitical competition. Some nations are also focusing on strengthening their police forces to handle internal conflicts. Thus, governments of different countries are procuring and maintaining an inventory of advanced warfare equipment and ammunition to maintain peace. Ammunition forms an integral component of combat equipment and arms that are owned by various military and law enforcement agencies across the globe. These actions are expected to increase the demand for weapons and ammunition, leading to market growth.
The market for ammunition is dynamic in nature, and parameters such as defense budgets, the number of armed personnel, inventory of firearms/artillery/tanks, stockpiling or war reserves, and geopolitical tensions, among others, play a key role in defining market attractiveness. Factors such as the changing nature of warfare from traditional to modern, the militarization of police forces, the surge in defense budget allocation for procurement of ammunition, the increasing incidence of drug trafficking and terrorist activities, and the modernization of armed forces are fueling the growth of the small caliber ammunition market.
Small Caliber Ammunition Market Forecast to 2029
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Ammunition Market Dynamics
Driver: Modernization programs undertaken by military forces
Rising incidences of armed intranational and international conflicts have driven a number of countries to enhance their military strengths through the procurement of advanced ammunition and equipment. Modernization is currently being undertaken across most emerging economies of the world, including Russia, China, Turkey, India, and Saudi Arabia. As a result of this, defense expenditure for ammunition procurement and R&D activities has increased significantly across the globe over the past few years. These countries are spending significantly on military modernization programs to enhance and upgrade their surveillance capabilities and improve their firepower assets in terms of range, precision, mobility, and lethality. These modernization activities are one of the most important factors driving the demand for small-caliber ammunition and firearms. Increasing training expenditure across economies is also fueling the consumption of small-caliber ammunition.
The US, for instance, is currently developing newer generation assault rifles under the next-generation squad weapon program with an aim to adopt new 6.8 mm caliber ammunition.
Restraint: Varying regulations affecting the procurement of ammunition
The growth of the ammunition market is significantly influenced by varying regulations, as different regions implement diverse policies that directly impact the industry. Stringent regulations, such as restrictions on civilian ownership or the requirement for thorough background checks, can impede market expansion by limiting the potential consumer base. Conversely, tax regulations may result in increased demand, driving market growth but potentially posing risks related to illegal trade and public safety. Moreover, changes in export and import regulations also play a pivotal role. Stringent international trade restrictions can hinder manufacturers' access to certain markets, affecting global expansion opportunities. On the other hand, relaxed import regulations may encourage cross-border trade, fostering market growth. Additionally, environmental regulations regarding lead-based ammunition and the promotion of eco-friendly alternatives can influence product development trends, steering manufacturers towards more sustainable options. In essence, the ammunition market’s trajectory is intricately tied to the regulatory landscape, and stakeholders must navigate this dynamic environment to capitalize on growth opportunities while ensuring compliance with evolving legal frameworks.
Opportunity:Advancements in small-caliber ammunition
Advancements in small-caliber ammunition represent a significant opportunity for the ammunition market. The continuous development and innovation in Small-caliber rounds present the industry with the chance to meet evolving demands in various sectors. One key aspect is the military, where advancements in small-caliber ammunition contribute to enhanced lethality, accuracy, and versatility in modern warfare. The adoption of lightweight materials, improved propellants, and precision manufacturing techniques results in ammunition that is more efficient and tailored to the specific needs of military operations. The warfare techniques of various countries have undergone considerable advancements, primarily owing to the challenges posed by guerilla warfare, insurgency, and terrorism. Military and homeland security forces across countries are attempting to find efficient ways to counter dangerous criminals through the use of advanced equipment and ammunition. There have been a number of improvements in the manufacturing techniques of small ammunition, such as modernized armor-piercing 7.62 mm and 5.56 mm bullets and the development of carbines, which are shorter assault rifles that do not exhibit any significant decrease in effectiveness.
Challenge: International measures to control the use of ammunition
The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) is a multilateral treaty ratified by 91 countries across the globe that came into effect on December 24, 2014. It is one of the measures taken by the United Nations Security Council to regulate the international trade of small arms, ammunition, and other weapons. The treaty prohibits the sale of ammunition across international borders.
The Arms Trade Treaty requires all state parties to adopt basic regulations and approval processes for the flow of weapons across international borders and establish common international standards that must be met before arms exports are authorized. It also requires annual reporting of imports and exports to a treaty secretariat. These regulations impact the contracting and procurement processes related to ammunition in various countries across the globe and further impact the export of ammunition across borders. In 2019, the US announced the withdrawal of its support for the Arms Trade Treaty regulating the multibillion-dollar global arms trade, which could affect the market significantly.
Additionally, unsecured or poorly managed ammunition stockpiles contribute to insecurity, with diverted ammunition becoming a catalyst for armed conflict, organized crime, and terrorism. The improper handling of ammunition has led to unplanned explosions at munition sites in over 100 countries, causing humanitarian and socio-economic disasters.
In 2020 and 2021, a Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) adopted a comprehensive approach to address safety and security measures for ammunition throughout its lifecycle. The GGE proposed practical recommendations for a comprehensive framework on conventional ammunition management to prevent both unplanned explosions and diversion.
Ecosystem Map: Small Caliber Ammunition Market
Increasing investment in the modernization of the military is fueling the rise of military applications.
Based on application, there are two segments of the ammunition market: military and homeland security. In 2023, the military application held the biggest market share. The global rise in terrorism and armed conflicts is propelling the growth of the military sector in the market. The demand for small-caliber ammunition in the Asia-Pacific area has significantly increased as a result of growing international hostilities and cross-border conflicts.
Based on caliber type, the 5.56mm small caliber is expected to dominate from 2024 to 2029.
Based on caliber type, the 5.56mm small caliber is expected to dominate the market for the forecast period. Over the course of the forecast period, the 5.56mm caliber segment is anticipated to grow owing to the wide applicability and usage of the 5.56mm caliber in both military and homeland security applications. Additionally, open online markets for small weapons and ammunition, as well as increased small caliber ammunition purchases by the homeland security and defense sectors to stop the rising number of armed conflicts, are driving this segment's rise.
The Asia Pacific region is expected to dominate the small-caliber ammunition market from 2024 to 2029.
Asia Pacific region is expected to continue its dominance in the small-caliber ammunition market with the highest regional share during the forecast period, which is largely driven by the increasing instances of terrorism and cross-border conflicts across the globe. Defense forces are procuring new ammunition under military modernization programs. The Asia Pacific small-caliber ammunition market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% during the forecast period. The growth of the market in this region can be attributed to the increased procurement of ammunition by various countries like India, China, Japan, and South Korea due to the rising deployment of the country's defense forces in overseas operations.
Small Caliber Ammunition Market by Region
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Key Market Players
The major players in the small-caliber ammunition market are established players such as General Dynamics Corporation (US), Northrop Grumman Corporation (US), BAE Systems (UK), Thales (France), and Nammo AS (Norway) . These players have adopted various growth strategies such as contracts, partnerships, collaborations, and agreements to further expand their presence in the small-caliber ammunition market.
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Report Metric |
Details |
Market size available for years |
2021–2029 |
Base year considered |
2023 |
Forecast period |
2024-2029 |
Forecast units |
Value (USD Million) |
Segments covered |
By Application, By Caliber type, By Bullet type, By Lethality |
Geographies covered |
North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa, and Latin America |
Companies covered |
Northrop Grumman Corporation (US), General Dynamics Corporation (US), CBC Global Ammunition (Brazil), Olin Corporation (US), BAE Systems (UK), Thales Group (France), Nexter (France), Elbit Systems (Israel), Nammo AS (Norway), and ST Engineering (Singapore) among others. (25 Companies) |
Small Caliber Ammunition Market Highlights
The study categorizes the small caliber ammunition market based on application, caliber type, bullet type, lethality,and region
Segment |
Subsegment |
By Application |
|
By Caliber Type |
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By Bullet Type |
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By Lethality |
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By Region |
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Recent Developments
- In December 2023, the United Kingdom and BAE Systems entered into a new contract worth £130 million ($162 million) for the acquisition of 155mm artillery shells, 30mm medium caliber rounds, and 5.56mm ammunition. This strategic agreement aims to enhance the British Army's inventory of heavy munitions, aligning with its operational requirements.
- In November 2023, the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) placed a new USD 21 million order with BAE Systems to supply additional small arms munitions over the next two years.
- In May 2022, FMV (Swedish Defense Materiel Administration) and the supplier Nammo finalized a framework agreement for the supply of small-caliber ammunition. This contract encompasses various types of 12.7-millimeter ammunition and spans until the year 2029.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Addressed by the Report:
What is the current size of the small caliber ammunition market?
The global small caliber ammunition market size is projected to grow from USD 10.03 billion in 2024 to USD 11.91 billion in 2029, at a CAGR of 3.4% from 2024 to 2029 .
Who are the winners in the small caliber ammunition market?
The major players in the small-caliber ammunition market are established players such as General Dynamics Corporation (US), Northrop Grumman Corporation (US), BAE Systems (UK), Thales (France), and Nammo AS (Norway).
What are some of the technological advancements in the market?
- CASELESS TELESCOPED AMMUNITION (CTA): Telescopic ammunition differs from conventional ammunition in that it is partially or entirely enveloped by the propellant. Due to this, it was earlier used only in heavy machine guns. However, recent advancements in ammunition technology have made the use of telescopic ammunition possible for small firearms as well. Manufacturers claim that telescopic ammunition remains resistant to heat and does not deform. Such ammunition is generally 40% lighter than regular ammunition.
- POLYMER-CASED AMMUNITION: Polymer-cased ammunition was developed to cater to the demand for lighter ammunition compared to conventional ammunition from the US authorities. Polymer-cased ammunition uses a polymer casing as opposed to the brass casing in conventional ammunition, thereby lowering its weight considerably. This ammunition is available in the following calibers: 9 mm, 5.56 mm NATO, .308, .300 Win Mag, .338 Lapua Magnum, and .50 BMG.
What are the factors driving the growth of the market?
- Geopolitical tensions and territorial conflicts across the globe
- Growth in military expenditure and arms transfer across countries
- Change in the nature of warfare
Which region is expected to hold the highest market share in the small caliber ammunition market?
The small caliber ammunition market in the North American region is estimated to hold the largest market share of 33% of the total market in 2023.
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This research study conducted on the ammunition market involved extensive use of secondary sources, directories, and databases such as the Small Arms Survey, UN COMTRADE, D&B Hoovers, Global Firepower, and Factiva to source information relevant to the small caliber ammunition market. Details regarding the procurement and ammunition consumption patterns of military and law enforcement applications in terms of contracts, supply agreements, and joint ventures, among others, were also available only for a limited set of countries.
Thus, manufacturer websites and annual reports, published news articles, defense blogs, government publications of different countries, and documents published by RAND Corporation (US), among others, were also referred to and used as a part of secondary research during the course of the study.
Primary sources considered included defense industry experts from the concerned market as well as preferred suppliers, ammunition manufacturers, solution providers, technology developers, alliances, and organizations related to all segments of the value chain of this industry. Ammunition is a sensitive topic, and therefore, several challenges were faced while conducting primary research.
Secondary Research
The share of companies in the small caliber ammunition market was determined using secondary data made available through various paid and unpaid sources and by analyzing product portfolios of major companies operating in the small caliber ammunition market. These companies were rated based on the performance and quality of their products. These data points were further validated by primary sources.
Secondary sources that were referred to for this research study on the small caliber ammunition market included government sources such as the country’s defense budgets; US Department of Defense (DoD); Government publications, military modernization program documents; corporate filings such as annual reports, investor presentations, and financial statements; and trade, business, and professional associations. The secondary data was collected and analyzed to arrive at the overall size of the small caliber ammunition market, which was further validated by primary respondents.
Primary Research
Extensive primary research was conducted after obtaining information about the current scenario of the small caliber ammunition market through secondary research. Several primary interviews were conducted with market experts from both demand and supply sides across major countries of North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. This primary data was collected through questionnaires, emails, and telephonic interviews.
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Market Size Estimation
The top-down and bottom-up approaches were used to estimate and validate the size of the small-caliber ammunition market. The following figure offers a representation of the overall market size estimation process employed for the purpose of this study on the small caliber ammunition market.
The research methodology used to estimate the market size included the following details:
- Key players in the small caliber ammunition market were identified through secondary research, and their market share was determined through primary and secondary research. This included the study of annual and financial reports of top market players and extensive interviews of leaders such as Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), directors, and marketing executives of leading companies operating in the small-caliber ammunition market.
- All percentage splits, shares, and breakdowns were determined using secondary sources and verified through primary sources.
- All possible parameters that affect the markets covered in this research study were accounted for, viewed in extensive detail, verified through primary research, and analyzed to obtain the final quantitative and qualitative data on the small caliber ammunition market. This data was consolidated, enhanced with detailed inputs, analyzed by MarketsandMarkets, and presented in this report.
Small caliber Ammunition Market Size: Bottom-Up Approach
Small caliber Ammunition Market Size: Top-Down Approach
Data Triangulation
After arriving at the overall size of the small caliber ammunition market from the market size estimation process explained above, the total market was split into several segments and respective subsegments. The data triangulation and market breakdown procedures explained were implemented wherever applicable to complete the overall market engineering & forecasting process to arrive at the exact statistics for various market segments and subsegments.
The data was triangulated by studying various macro and micro factors and trends from both the demand and supply sides. Along with this, the market size was validated using both top-down and bottom-up approaches. The following figure indicates the market breakdown structure and data triangulation procedure that was implemented in the market engineering process to make this report on the small caliber ammunition market.
Market Definition
Ammunition is fired, scattered, or dropped from a weapon or a weapon system. It can be broadly classified into four categories: Small-Caliber ammunition, Medium-Caliber ammunition, Large-Caliber ammunition, and others. Ammunition is mainly procured by military and law enforcement agencies such as state police and federal police. Small-caliber ammunition is used by civilians in hunting, sports activities, and self-defense applications.
The small-caliber ammunition category includes rounds that are 5.56 mm, 7.62 mm, 12.7 mm, and 14.5 mm in size.
Key Stakeholders
Various stakeholders of the market are listed below:
- Armed Forces
- Ammunition Manufacturers
- Component Manufacturers
- Distributors and Suppliers
- Research Organizations, Forums, Alliances, and Associations
- Defense Regulatory Bodies
- Law Enforcement Agencies
- Home Ministries/Ministries of Interior
Report Objectives
- To define, describe, segment, and forecast the size of the small caliber ammunition market in terms of value based on application, caliber type, bullet type, lethality, and region from 2024 to 2029
- To forecast the size of various segments of the small caliber ammunition market with respect to six major regions: North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa
- To identify and analyze key drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challenges influencing the growth of the small-caliber ammunition market
- To identify the opportunities for stakeholders in the market by identifying key market and technology trends
- To map & analyze competitive developments such as contracts, acquisitions & partnerships, agreements, product launches & developments, and research & development (R&D) activities in the small caliber ammunition market
- To anticipate the status of the small caliber ammunition procurements by different countries, the number of their military personnel, their defense spending, technological advancements in ammunition, and joint developments undertaken by leading players to analyze the degree of competition in the market.
- To provide a comprehensive competitive landscape of the small caliber ammunition market, along with an overview of the different strategies adopted by the key market players to strengthen their position in the market
Available Customizations
MarketsandMarkets offers the following customizations for this market report:
- Market sizing and forecast for additional countries
- By application, by caliber breakdown at country level
- Additional five companies profiling
Product Analysis
- Product matrix, which provides a detailed comparison of the product portfolio of each company in the small caliber ammunition Market
Growth opportunities and latent adjacency in Small Caliber Ammunition Market