Small Caliber Ammunition Market

The global small-caliber ammunition market size is projected to grow from USD 10.03 billion in 2024 to USD 11.91 billion in 2029, at a CAGR of 3.4% from 2024 to 2029.

Territorial conflicts and geopolitical disputes have become global issues, posing potential risks to countries and their populations. Many countries are, therefore, working to improve their military capability to counter terrorism and protect their borders due to growing geopolitical competition. Some nations are also focusing on strengthening their police forces to handle internal conflicts. Thus, governments of different countries are procuring and maintaining an inventory of advanced warfare equipment and ammunition to maintain peace. Ammunition forms an integral component of combat equipment and arms that are owned by various military and law enforcement agencies across the globe. These actions are expected to increase the demand for weapons and ammunition, leading to market growth.

The market for ammunition is dynamic in nature, and parameters such as defense budgets, the number of armed personnel, inventory of firearms/artillery/tanks, stockpiling or war reserves, and geopolitical tensions, among others, play a key role in defining market attractiveness. Factors such as the changing nature of warfare from traditional to modern, the militarization of police forces, the surge in defense budget allocation for procurement of ammunition, the increasing incidence of drug trafficking and terrorist activities, and the modernization of armed forces are fueling the growth of the small caliber ammunition market.

Small Caliber Ammunition Market Forecast to 2029

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Ammunition Market Dynamics

Driver: Modernization programs undertaken by military forces

Rising incidences of armed intranational and international conflicts have driven a number of countries to enhance their military strengths through the procurement of advanced ammunition and equipment. Modernization is currently being undertaken across most emerging economies of the world, including Russia, China, Turkey, India, and Saudi Arabia. As a result of this, defense expenditure for ammunition procurement and R&D activities has increased significantly across the globe over the past few years. These countries are spending significantly on military modernization programs to enhance and upgrade their surveillance capabilities and improve their firepower assets in terms of range, precision, mobility, and lethality. These modernization activities are one of the most important factors driving the demand for small-caliber ammunition and firearms. Increasing training expenditure across economies is also fueling the consumption of small-caliber ammunition.

The US, for instance, is currently developing newer generation assault rifles under the next-generation squad weapon program with an aim to adopt new 6.8 mm caliber ammunition.

Restraint: Varying regulations affecting the procurement of ammunition

The growth of the ammunition market is significantly influenced by varying regulations, as different regions implement diverse policies that directly impact the industry. Stringent regulations, such as restrictions on civilian ownership or the requirement for thorough background checks, can impede market expansion by limiting the potential consumer base. Conversely, tax regulations may result in increased demand, driving market growth but potentially posing risks related to illegal trade and public safety. Moreover, changes in export and import regulations also play a pivotal role. Stringent international trade restrictions can hinder manufacturers' access to certain markets, affecting global expansion opportunities. On the other hand, relaxed import regulations may encourage cross-border trade, fostering market growth. Additionally, environmental regulations regarding lead-based ammunition and the promotion of eco-friendly alternatives can influence product development trends, steering manufacturers towards more sustainable options. In essence, the ammunition market’s trajectory is intricately tied to the regulatory landscape, and stakeholders must navigate this dynamic environment to capitalize on growth opportunities while ensuring compliance with evolving legal frameworks.

Opportunity:Advancements in small-caliber ammunition

Advancements in small-caliber ammunition represent a significant opportunity for the ammunition market. The continuous development and innovation in Small-caliber rounds present the industry with the chance to meet evolving demands in various sectors. One key aspect is the military, where advancements in small-caliber ammunition contribute to enhanced lethality, accuracy, and versatility in modern warfare. The adoption of lightweight materials, improved propellants, and precision manufacturing techniques results in ammunition that is more efficient and tailored to the specific needs of military operations. The warfare techniques of various countries have undergone considerable advancements, primarily owing to the challenges posed by guerilla warfare, insurgency, and terrorism. Military and homeland security forces across countries are attempting to find efficient ways to counter dangerous criminals through the use of advanced equipment and ammunition. There have been a number of improvements in the manufacturing techniques of small ammunition, such as modernized armor-piercing 7.62 mm and 5.56 mm bullets and the development of carbines, which are shorter assault rifles that do not exhibit any significant decrease in effectiveness.

Challenge: International measures to control the use of ammunition

The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) is a multilateral treaty ratified by 91 countries across the globe that came into effect on December 24, 2014. It is one of the measures taken by the United Nations Security Council to regulate the international trade of small arms, ammunition, and other weapons. The treaty prohibits the sale of ammunition across international borders.

The Arms Trade Treaty requires all state parties to adopt basic regulations and approval processes for the flow of weapons across international borders and establish common international standards that must be met before arms exports are authorized. It also requires annual reporting of imports and exports to a treaty secretariat. These regulations impact the contracting and procurement processes related to ammunition in various countries across the globe and further impact the export of ammunition across borders. In 2019, the US announced the withdrawal of its support for the Arms Trade Treaty regulating the multibillion-dollar global arms trade, which could affect the market significantly.

Additionally, unsecured or poorly managed ammunition stockpiles contribute to insecurity, with diverted ammunition becoming a catalyst for armed conflict, organized crime, and terrorism. The improper handling of ammunition has led to unplanned explosions at munition sites in over 100 countries, causing humanitarian and socio-economic disasters.

In 2020 and 2021, a Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) adopted a comprehensive approach to address safety and security measures for ammunition throughout its lifecycle. The GGE proposed practical recommendations for a comprehensive framework on conventional ammunition management to prevent both unplanned explosions and diversion.

Ecosystem Map: Small Caliber Ammunition Market

Increasing investment in the modernization of the military is fueling the rise of military applications.

Based on application, there are two segments of the ammunition market: military and homeland security. In 2023, the military application held the biggest market share. The global rise in terrorism and armed conflicts is propelling the growth of the military sector in the market. The demand for small-caliber ammunition in the Asia-Pacific area has significantly increased as a result of growing international hostilities and cross-border conflicts.

Based on caliber type, the 5.56mm small caliber is expected to dominate from 2024 to 2029.

Based on caliber type, the 5.56mm small caliber is expected to dominate the market for the forecast period. Over the course of the forecast period, the 5.56mm caliber segment is anticipated to grow owing to the wide applicability and usage of the 5.56mm caliber in both military and homeland security applications. Additionally, open online markets for small weapons and ammunition, as well as increased small caliber ammunition purchases by the homeland security and defense sectors to stop the rising number of armed conflicts, are driving this segment's rise.

The Asia Pacific region is expected to dominate the small-caliber ammunition market from 2024 to 2029.

Asia Pacific region is expected to continue its dominance in the small-caliber ammunition market with the highest regional share during the forecast period, which is largely driven by the increasing instances of terrorism and cross-border conflicts across the globe. Defense forces are procuring new ammunition under military modernization programs. The Asia Pacific small-caliber ammunition market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% during the forecast period. The growth of the market in this region can be attributed to the increased procurement of ammunition by various countries like India, China, Japan, and South Korea due to the rising deployment of the country's defense forces in overseas operations.

Small Caliber Ammunition Market by Region

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Key Market Players

The major players in the small-caliber ammunition market are established players such as General Dynamics Corporation (US), Northrop Grumman Corporation (US), BAE Systems (UK), Thales (France), and Nammo AS (Norway) . These players have adopted various growth strategies such as contracts, partnerships, collaborations, and agreements to further expand their presence in the small-caliber ammunition market.

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Scope of the Report

Small Caliber Ammunition Market Highlights

The study categorizes the small caliber ammunition market based on application, caliber type, bullet type, lethality,and region

Recent Developments

• In December 2023, the United Kingdom and BAE Systems entered into a new contract worth £130 million ($162 million) for the acquisition of 155mm artillery shells, 30mm medium caliber rounds, and 5.56mm ammunition. This strategic agreement aims to enhance the British Army's inventory of heavy munitions, aligning with its operational requirements.
• In November 2023, the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) placed a new USD 21 million order with BAE Systems to supply additional small arms munitions over the next two years.
• In May 2022, FMV (Swedish Defense Materiel Administration) and the supplier Nammo finalized a framework agreement for the supply of small-caliber ammunition. This contract encompasses various types of 12.7-millimeter ammunition and spans until the year 2029.

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