COVID-19 Impact on Vaccines & Drugs Market

COVID-19 Impact on Vaccines & Drugs Market - Global Forecast to 2025

Report Code: PH 7608 May, 2020, by marketsandmarkets.com

[66 Pages Report] The global COVID-19 vaccines market is projected to reach USD 1,401 million by 2025 from USD 2,273 million in 2022, at a CAGR of -14.9% during the forecast period. The growth of the COVID vaccines market is attributed majorly to the rising number of people infected with COVID-19 and increasing funding for vaccine development.

On the other hand, the global COVID-19 drugs market is projected to reach USD 2 million by 2025 from USD 165 million in 2020, at a CAGR of -57.8% during the forecast period. The growth of the COVID drugs market is primarily attributed to use of repurposed drugs for compassionate use, and the emergence of alternative therapies such as convalescent plasma therapy which were earlier used for treating epidemic diseases such as SARS, MERS, and H1N1. Moreover, collaborations between global organizations and governments of various nations to promote the supply of essential drugs and medical supplies are fueling the market growth.

COVID-19 Impact on Vaccines & Drugs Market

Currently, the R&D landscape for COVID-19 vaccines includes 115 vaccine candidates. The most advanced candidates that have recently moved into clinical development are:

  • mRNA-1273 from Moderna
  • Ad5-nCoV from CanSino Biologics
  • INO-4800 from Inovio
  • LV-SMENP-DC and pathogen-specific aAPC from Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute

Funding from global governments and foundations is promoting the growth of the market

Incentives are needed to engage manufacturers for the large-scale capacity to guarantee sufficient production of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. In line with this, various global organizations have come forward to expedite the process, such as Gavi, CEPI, and WHO. However, considering the pandemic scenario of COVID-19, much stronger initiatives are required.

In April 2020, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation announced plans to help fund factories for seven promising vaccines, even before seeing conclusive data. The foundation aims to help scale up manufacturing during testing, rather than after the vaccines have passed the trials.

Besides the most promising Moderna program, several other big pharma companies are involved in COVID-19 vaccine work. Johnson & Johnson has pledged a manufacturing scale-up to 1 billion doses for its federally partnered program. Meanwhile, Sanofi has two partnerships underway—one with the federal government and another with Translate Bio.

Vaccine manufacturing ramp-up to drive the growth further

While global drug makers are pouring massive resources into developing targeted therapies and vaccines, contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMOs) are finding ways to ramp up the production of vaccines. In line with this, a new CDMO from Belgium's Univercells is offering its expertise to help drug makers scale up their manufacturing.

Pfizer and BioNTech have initiated plans for clinical trials and producing millions of doses, if the trials succeed. The companies expect to have millions of doses of a COVID-19 vaccine ready to go by year-end if the companies begin human testing as planned by late April. Pfizer and BioNTech are hoping to advance multiple mRNA vaccine candidates.

Currently, around 155 molecules are under clinical investigation, and about 45 molecules are under preclinical development to be targeted against COVID-19. In this list, four promising drugs have been repurposed for use against COVID-19.

  • Remdesivir
  • Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine
  • Lopinavir and ritonavir (and that same combination plus interferon-beta)
  • An immune system messenger that can help stop the multiplication of viruses.

Researchers and physicians in several countries are focusing on various other existing drugs to examine their potential to treat COVID-19. Chinese authorities, which have been dealing with the virus longer, are recommending Arbidol (umifenovir), which has not been approved in Western countries, as well as old antivirals ribavirin and interferon-alpha. Similarly, Avigan (favipiravir) by Fujifilm has shown promise in the treatment of COVID-19.

As the maximum number of molecules are repurposed drugs that are already approved for other infections and inflammatory diseases, higher stages of development (namely phase 2 trials) hold the largest share. China, along with other Asian countries, holds the largest share of the number of clinical trials being conducted, followed by Europe and the US. Small molecules accounted for the largest share, followed by monoclonal antibodies and plasma and cell therapy.

AI-powered technologies are making the drug discovery process more efficient and substantially improve success rates at the early stages of drug development. Artificial intelligence algorithms ingest and analyze a vast amount of information and can identify potential drug candidates in lesser time. Such factors will expedite the drug development process.

COVID-19 Impact on Vaccines & Drugs Market

North America dominates the COVID-19 drugs market

North America is expected to account for the largest share of the COVID drugs market in 2020. The large share of North America is attributed to the increasing prevalence of COVID-19, rising demand for repurposed drugs, collaborations among manufacturers and academics, and the implementation of favorable initiatives by the government in the US and Canada. The North American market is also expected to grow at the highest rate during the forecast period.

Key Market Players

Key players in the COVID-19 vaccines market include Pfizer Inc. (US), Johnson & Johnson Services, Inc (US), GlaxoSmithKline plc. (UK), Sanofi (France) Serum Institute of India (India), among others. Major players in the COVID-19 drugs market include Gilead Sciences, Inc. (US), Sanofi (France), F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd (Switzerland), Merck KGaA (Germany), Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Belgium) among others.

Scope of the Report:

Report Metric

Details

Market size available for years

2020–2025

Base year considered

2020

Forecast period

2020–2025

Forecast units

Value (USD Million)

Segments covered

Vaccines, Drugs, and region

Geographies covered

North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Rest of the World

Companies covered

Major players in the COVID-19 vaccines market include Pfizer Inc. (US), Johnson & Johnson Services, Inc (US), GlaxoSmithKline plc. (UK), Sanofi (France) Serum Institute of India (India), among others. Major players in the COVID-19 drugs market include Gilead Sciences, Inc. (US), Sanofi (France), F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd (Switzerland), Merck KGaA (Germany), Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Belgium) among others.

The research report categorizes the COVID Vaccines and Drugs market into the following segments and subsegments:

Vaccine

The current pipeline of vaccines by phase by companies

Competitive landscape (top players in vaccines)

  • Viewpoint on COVID-19 pipeline      
  • Impact of COVID-19 on other vaccines in the portfolio/other under development vaccines  

Macroeconomic indicators          

  • Drivers         
  • Restraints   
  • New opportunities 

Post COVID-19 vaccine approval scenario             

  • Challenges in vaccines approval/production/supply
  • Strategies to overcome challenges         
    • Historic examples (SARS, MERS, Ebola, H1N1)    
    • New strategies

Strategies to ramp up production at a pandemic level    

  • Historic examples           
  • New strategies

Covid-19 vaccine market estimation

  • Epidemiology model (assumption basis)               
  • Pricing strategies (compared to current flu vaccines)      
  • Covid-19 vaccine market (optimistic, pessimistic & realistic)         

Therapeutic drugs

The current pipeline of drugs by phase by companies

Competitive landscape (top players in COVID-19 therapeutic drugs)

  • A view point on the COVID-19 pipeline 
  • Impact of COVID-19 on other products in the portfolio/other under development products        

Macroeconomic indicators          

  • Drivers 
  • Restraints           
  • New opportunities         

Post COVID-19 approval scenario             

  • Challenges in production/manufacturing             
  • Strategies to overcome challenges         
    • Historic examples (SARS, MERS, Ebola, H1N1)    
    • New strategies

Strategies to ramp up production at a pandemic level    

  • Historic examples           
  • New strategies

Covid-19 vaccine market estimation

  • Epidemiology model (assumption basis)               
  • Pricing strategies             
  • Repurpose drugs            
  • New molecules
  • Covid-19 therapy market (optimistic, pessimistic & realistic)        

Recent Developments

  • April 2020, Johnson & Johnson to Produce 900M COVID-19 Vaccine Doses by Q1 2021
  • April 2020, GSK and Sanofi. Sanofi and GSK are working together on the development of Covid-19 vaccine
  • March 2020, WHO conduction global clinical trial for most promising drugs in multiple countries

Critical questions answered in the report:

  • How will the COVID-19 vaccines and drugs market pan out in the long term?
  • What are the reasons contributing to the growth of the developmental pipeline?
  • Who are leaders in vaccine and drug development, and what technologies are they utilizing?
  • What are the key strategies adopted by players to overcome developmental challenges?
  • What are the challenges hindering the growth of COVID 19-vaccines and drugs market?

To speak to our analyst for a discussion on the above findings, click Speak to Analyst

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION (Page No. - 10)
    1.1 COVID-19 HEALTH ASSESSMENT
    1.2 COVID-19 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
    1.3 COVID-19 IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY—SCENARIO ASSESSMENT

2 COVID-19: DEVELOPMENT OF VACCINES (Page No. - 16)
    2.1 VACCINES
           2.1.1 CURRENT PIPELINE OF VACCINES
           2.1.2 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE (TOP PLAYERS DEVELOPING VACCINES)
                    2.1.2.1 Viewpoint on the COVID-19 pipeline
           2.1.3 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
                    2.1.3.1 Drivers
                               2.1.3.1.1 Increasing prevalence of infectious diseases
                               2.1.3.1.2 Growing funding for vaccine development
                    2.1.3.2 Restraints
                               2.1.3.2.1 High cost of vaccine development
                               2.1.3.2.2 Drugs and alternate therapies under development
                               2.1.3.2.3 Compassionate use
                               2.1.3.2.4 Immunization strategies
                    2.1.3.3 New opportunities
                               2.1.3.3.1 Collaborations among global organizations and vaccine manufacturers
                    2.1.3.4 Challenges
                               2.1.3.4.1 Herd immunity
           2.1.4 POST-COVID-19 VACCINE APPROVAL SCENARIO
                    2.1.4.1 Challenges in vaccine approval/production/supply
                               2.1.4.1.1 Are companies taking enough advantage of artificial intelligence (AI) to fast track vaccine/drug approval? (medium criticality)
                               2.1.4.1.2 Can production for pandemics be a challenge? (high criticality)
                               2.1.4.1.3 The world needs a vaccine but who needs it the most?(medium criticality)
                               2.1.4.1.4 Global organizations are expediting clinical research, but will site and logistical challenges cause delays?(high criticality)
                    2.1.4.2 Strategies to overcome challenges
                               2.1.4.2.1 Collaborations among global organizations
                               2.1.4.2.2 Establishing reliable supply chains
                               2.1.4.2.3 Historic examples (SARS, MERS, EBOLA, and H1N1)
                               2.1.4.2.4 Supply and Demand Issues during H1N1 Vaccination
                               2.1.4.2.5 Challenges in Supply Projections
                               2.1.4.2.6 Recommendations from the H1N1 Vaccination Program
                               2.1.4.2.7 Strategies adopted by several pharmaceutical companies to combat the H1N1 pandemic
                               2.1.4.2.8 Historic examples
                               2.1.4.2.9 New strategies
                    2.1.4.3 COVID-19 VACCINES MARKET (OPTIMISTIC, PESSIMISTIC, AND REALISTIC)
                               2.1.4.3.1 Market size estimation for optimistic scenario
                               2.1.4.3.2 Market size estimation for realistic scenario
                               2.1.4.3.3 Market size estimation for pessimistic scenario

3 COVID-19: DEVELOPMENT OF THERAPEUTIC DRUGS (Page No. - 42)
    3.1 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE (DRUGS MARKET)
           3.1.1 TOP PLAYERS INVOLVED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRUGS FOR COVID-19
                    3.1.1.1 Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
                    3.1.1.2 Oncoimmune
                    3.1.1.3 Gilead Science
                    3.1.1.4 Sanofi and the National Institute of Respiratory Diseases (Mexico)
                    3.1.1.5 Roche
                    3.1.1.6 CytoDyn
                    3.1.1.7 Merck KGaA
                    3.1.1.8 Janssen Pharmaceuticals
                    3.1.1.9 Masterlek
                    3.1.1.10 Fujifilm
                    3.1.1.11 Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP
                    3.1.1.12 AbbVie
                    3.1.1.13 Viewpoint on COVID-19 therapeutic drug pipeline
                    3.1.1.14 Impact of COVID-19 on other products in the portfolio/other under-development products
           3.1.2 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
                    3.1.2.1 Drivers
                               3.1.2.1.1 Alternate therapies targeting COVID-19
                               3.1.2.1.2 Adoption of organ-on-chip models in the development of drugs targeting COVID-19
                               3.1.2.1.3 Compassionate use
                               3.1.2.1.4 Collaborations and other developments promoting COVID-19 drugs
                    3.1.2.2 Restraints
                               3.1.2.2.1 Herd immunity and new vaccines under development
                               3.1.2.2.2 Uncertainty in the efficacy and side effects of repurposed malaria drugs targeting COVID-19
                    3.1.2.3 New opportunities
                               3.1.2.3.1 Adoption of new tools to expedite drug discovery
                               3.1.2.3.2 Investments in real-world evidence by pharmaceutical companies
                    3.1.2.4 Trends
                               3.1.2.4.1 Changes in ipr to promote the supply of essential drugs and medical supplies
           3.1.3 POST COVID-19 DRUG APPROVAL SCENARIO
                    3.1.3.1 Challenges in drug approval/production/supply
                               3.1.3.1.1 In the case of treatments being available for COVID-19, will they be available to the people in need? (high criticality)
                               3.1.3.1.2 Orphan drug status, market exclusivity – boon or bane?(medium criticality)
                               3.1.3.1.3 The world needs drugs targeting COVID-19. but who needs it the most (high criticality)
                    3.1.3.2 Strategies to overcome challenges
                               3.1.3.2.1 Production turbocharge of COVID-19 hopeful drugs
                               3.1.3.2.2 Accelerated approvals
                               3.1.3.2.3 Drug manufacturers initiating programs to increase the market access of COVID-19 drugs
                               3.1.3.2.4 Historic examples (SARS, MERS, EBOLA, and H1N1)
                               3.1.3.2.5 New strategies
                    3.1.3.3 Strategies to ramp up production at pandemic level
                               3.1.3.3.1 Establishing stable supply chains to ramp up production of drugs
                               3.1.3.3.2 Creating external manufacturing networks
           3.1.4 COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET ESTIMATION
                    3.1.4.1 Epidemiology model (assumption basis)
                    3.1.4.2 COVID-19 drugs market (optimistic, realistic, &  pessimistic scenarios)
                               3.1.4.2.1 Market size estimation for optimistic scenario
                               3.1.4.2.2 Market size estimation for realistic scenario
                               3.1.4.2.3 Market size estimation for pessimistic scenario


LIST OF TABLES (14 Tables)

TABLE 1 PIPELINE OF VACCINES FOR THE TREATMENT OF COVID-19
TABLE 2 INCIDENCE OF COVID-19 IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
TABLE 3 MAJOR INTERVENTIONAL VACCINE MANUFACTURING EFFORTS
TABLE 4 COVID-19 VACCINE MARKET, BY REGION, 2022-2025 (USD MILLION)
TABLE 5 COVID-19 VACCINE MARKET, BY REGION, 2022-2025 (USD MILLION)
TABLE 6 COVID-19 VACCINE MARKET, BY REGION, 2022-2025 (USD MILLION)
TABLE 7 COVID-19 THERAPEUTIC DRUG PIPELINE (CLINICAL)
TABLE 8 NOTABLE FIRST-TIME US APPROVAL DECISIONS PENDING IN MARCH 2020
TABLE 9 SUPPLEMENTARY AND OTHER NOTABLE APPROVAL DECISIONS PENDING  IN MARCH 2020
TABLE 10 NOTABLE FIRST-TIME US APPROVAL DECISIONS DUE IN APRIL 2020
TABLE 11 OTHER NOTABLE APPROVAL DECISIONS TO BE TAKEN IN APRIL 2020
TABLE 12 COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET, BY REGION, 2020–2025 (USD MILLION)
TABLE 13 COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET, BY REGION, 2020–2025 (USD MILLION)
TABLE 14 COVID-19 DRUGS MARKET, BY REGION, 2020–2025 (USD MILLION)


LIST OF FIGURES (15 Figures)

FIGURE 1 COVID-19 THE GLOBAL PROPAGATION
FIGURE 2 COVID-19 PROPAGATION: SELECT COUNTRIES
FIGURE 3 COUNTRIES BEGIN WITH SIMILAR TRAJECTORIES BUT CURVES DEVIATE BASED ON MEASURES TAKEN
FIGURE 4 REVISED GDP FORECASTS FOR SELECT G20 COUNTRIES IN 2020
FIGURE 5 CRITERIA IMPACTING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
FIGURE 6 SCENARIOS IN TERMS OF RECOVERY OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
FIGURE 7 PIPELINE OF COVID-19 VACCINE CANDIDATES, BY TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM
FIGURE 8 COVID-19 VACCINE DEVELOPERS, BY TYPE AND GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
FIGURE 9 COVID-19 IMPACT ON VACCINE SUPPLY
FIGURE 10 EPIDEMIOLOGY MODEL (ASSUMPTION BASIS)
FIGURE 11 MOLECULES TARGETING COVID-19, BY CLINICAL PHASE
FIGURE 12 MAJOR LOCATIONS WHERE CLINICAL TRIALS ARE BEING CONDUCTED
FIGURE 13 SHARE OF MAJOR MOLECULAR ENTITIES UNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR COVID-19
FIGURE 14 SHARE OF MOLECULES UNDER PRECLINICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR COVID-19
FIGURE 15 SHARE OF REPURPOSED DRUGS VS. NEW ENTITIES

The global vaccines and drugs market study involved the extensive use of both primary and secondary sources. The research process involved the study of various factors affecting the industry to identify the key players, competitive landscape, key market dynamics, and key player strategies.

Secondary Research

The secondary research process involved the widespread use of secondary sources, directories, databases (such as Bloomberg Businessweek, Factiva, and D&B Hoovers), white papers, annual reports, company house documents, investor presentations, and SEC filings of companies. Secondary research was used to identify and collect information useful for the extensive, technical, market-oriented, and commercial study of the COVID Vaccines and Drugs market. It was also used to obtain important information about the key players and market classification and segmentation according to industry trends to the bottom-most level, and key developments related to market and technology perspectives. A database of the key industry leaders was also prepared using secondary research.

Primary Research

In the primary research process, various sources from both the supply and demand sides were interviewed to obtain qualitative and quantitative information for this report. The primary sources from the supply side include industry experts such as CEOs, vice presidents, marketing and sales directors, technology & innovation directors, and related key executives from various key companies and organizations operating in the vaccines and infectious disease drugs market. The primary sources from the demand side included industry experts, purchase & sales managers, doctors, and personnel from research organizations. Primary research was conducted to validate the market segmentation, identify key players in the market, and gather insights on key industry trends and key market dynamics.

A breakdown of the primary respondents is provided below:

COVID-19 Impact on Vaccines & Drugs Market

To know about the assumptions considered for the study, download the pdf brochure

Market Size Estimation

The market size estimates and forecasts provided in this study are derived through a bottom-up approach (epidemiology analysis) and assessment of utilization/adoption/penetration trends by region.

Data Triangulation

After arriving at the market size, the vaccines and drugs targeting COVID-19 market was divided into several segments and subsegments. Data triangulation and market breakdown procedures were employed, wherever applicable, to complete the overall market engineering process and to arrive at the exact statistics for all segments and subsegments.

Objectives of the Study

  • To define, describe, and forecast the global COVID Vaccines and Drugs market by region in optimistic, pessimistic and realistic scenarios
  • To provide detailed information about the major factors influencing the market growth (such as drivers, restraints, opportunities, and challenges)
  • To analyze micromarkets with respect to individual growth trends, prospects, and contributions to the overall market
  • To analyze market opportunities for stakeholders and provide details of the competitive landscape for key players
  • To forecast the size of the COVID Vaccines and Drugs market in four major regions (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Rest of the World)
  • To profile the key players in the global COVID Vaccines and Drugs market and comprehensively analyze their key products in the pipeline
  • To track and analyze competitive developments such as current product pipeline, clinical development stage, molecule type, geographic locations, etc.

Available Customizations

With the given market data, MarketsandMarkets offers customizations as per the company’s specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report:

Geographic Analysis

  • Further breakdown of the Asia-Pacific COVID Vaccines and Drugs market into Japan, China, India, and other Asian countries
  • Further breakdown of the European COVID Vaccines and Drugs market into the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and other European countries.
Report Code
PH 7608
Published ON
May, 2020
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