South Africa Electric Bus Market (2025-2030)

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Various secondary sources, directories, and databases have been used to identify and collect information for the electric buses market study. The study involved four main activities in estimating the current size of the market: secondary research, validation through primary research, assumptions, and market analysis. Exhaustive secondary research was carried out to collect information on the market. The next step was to validate these findings, assumptions, and market analysis with industry experts across the value chain through primary research. The bottom-up approach was employed to estimate the complete market size for different segments considered in this study.

Secondary Research

In the secondary research process, various secondary sources were used to identify and collect relevant information for an extensive commercial study of the electric buses market. Secondary sources include company annual reports, investor presentations, product brochures, press releases, vehicle specifications, government publications, public-transport authority reports, industry association publications, and international organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), European Commission, Federal Transit Administration (FTA), US Department of Transportation (USDOT), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), California Air Resources Board (CARB), Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA), China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH), Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA), and Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Additionally, secondary research and electric bus model mapping were carried out to assess vehicle-level parameters such as battery capacity, driving range, passenger capacity, vehicle length, powertrain type, charging capability, and indicative vehicle pricing, supporting market segmentation and analysis across regions and applications.

Primary Research

Extensive primary research was conducted through secondary research after understanding the electric buses market scenario. Several primary interviews were conducted with market experts from both the demand (OEMs) and supply (electric bus and component manufacturers) sides across major regions, namely, Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East & Africa, and North America. Approximately 90% and 10% of primary interviews were conducted with the OEM and Tier I players, respectively. Primary data was collected through questionnaires, emails, and telephonic interviews. In the canvassing of primary data, various departments within organizations, such as sales, operations, and marketing, were covered to provide a holistic viewpoint in the report.

After interacting with industry experts, brief sessions were conducted with highly experienced independent consultants to reinforce the findings from the primaries. This and the in-house subject matter experts' opinions led to the findings described in the remainder of this report.

Breakdown of Primary Interviews

Notes: Company tiers are based on the supply chain; company revenue is not considered. Tier 1 includes component manufacturers and suppliers to OEMs, and Tier 2 includes component suppliers to Tier 1.

*Others include sales, marketing, and product managers.

To know about the assumptions considered for the study, download the pdf brochure

Market Size Estimation

A detailed market estimation approach was followed to estimate and validate the value of the electric buses market and other dependent submarkets.

• The bottom-up approach was used to estimate and validate the size of the electric buses market. Firstly, the country-wise sales of electric buses were mapped from country-level associations, paid databases, and sources such as ICCT and IEA. The sales forecast for electric buses by country and region was based on macroeconomic indicators, emission regulations, automotive industry growth, GDP growth, fundings, government investments, companies' R&D investments, and investments in charging infrastructure.
• Secondly, all segments (propulsion type, battery capacity, propulsion, range, length, GVW, power output, seating capacity, and application) in the electric buses market were derived by mapping different electric buses at the country level in different regions, which were then verified with primary data.
• These segments' percentage split was then multiplied by the electric bus sales to get the volume side.
• The Average Selling Price (ASP) for each segment (propulsion type, battery capacity, propulsion, range, length, GVW, power output, seating capacity, and application) was derived through deals and supply contracts made for electric and FCEV buses.
• Forecasts for ASP were developed at the vehicle/country level using government electrification programs, fleet replacement, deals and orders, technology adoption, OEM capacity/model expansion, battery and vehicle economics, charging infrastructure, route suitability, and financing/procurement models.
• These ASPs were then verified by primaries and were multiplied by volume to get the value side in (USD Billion).
• The ASPs were then multiplied by the volume side to obtain the global market for electric buses for the value side.

Electric Buses Market: Bottom-Up Approach

Data Triangulation

After arriving at the overall size of the electric buses market through the methodology mentioned above, the market was split into several segments and subsegments. Data triangulation is a research technique used to increase the validity and reliability of findings by cross-validating data from multiple sources or methods. This technique involves the use of multiple sources of data, such as surveys, interviews, observations, and secondary data, to confirm and corroborate the findings obtained from each source. The extrapolated market data was triangulated by studying various macro indicators and regional trends from both the supply and demand sides.